---
title: "Bash case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bash ($17.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 23 items with odds, observed 95.27% over 1,647 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Bash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Bash

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash?window=all)

Price · $17.08 · 24.4 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $15.53 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.27% · 1,647 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94 openings · below min

7 days · 94.06% ±8.94 1,476 openings

30 days · 95.27% ±8.46 1,647 openings

since tracking started · 95.27% ±8.46 1,647 openings

69.0% 105.3% 141.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash?window=24h) | 94 | 105.07% ±35.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash?window=7d) | 1,476 | 94.06% ±8.94 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash) | 1,647 | 95.27% ±8.46 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bash?window=all) | 1,647 | 95.27% ±8.46 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,647 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $400 571 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $363 518 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $209 298 coins | 4.7% | 2 | 5.8 | 0.35× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $152 217 coins | 3.4% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $108 154 coins | 3.5% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $97.30 139 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $95.20 136 coins | 36.8% | 112 | 98.8 | 1.13× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $86.10 123 coins | 3.3% | 13 | 9.9 | 1.32× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $77.00 110 coins | 1.2% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $76.30 109 coins | 6.9% | 30 | 23.1 | 1.30× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $70.70 101 coins | 1.1% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $26.89 38.42 coins | 4.3% | 46 | 41.2 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $13.24 18.92 coins | 5.1% | 92 | 98.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $11.71 16.73 coins | 4.5% | 101 | 98.8 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $11.33 16.18 coins | 5.1% | 123 | 115.3 | 1.07× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $7.51 10.73 coins | 2.9% | 93 | 98.8 | 0.94× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $6.80 9.71 coins | 5.7% | 232 | 214.1 | 1.08× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.26 6.08 coins | 1.9% | 126 | 115.3 | 1.09× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $3.65 5.21 coins | 2.0% | 138 | 143.1 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.11 4.44 coins | 1.7% | 140 | 140.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.91 4.15 coins | 1.3% | 109 | 115.3 | 0.95× |
| [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.19 3.13 coins | 1.2% | 137 | 140.0 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) | 10.0% | $2.13 3.04 coins | 1.4% | 131 | 164.7 | 0.80× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bash)

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $17.08 24.4 coins $4.26 6.08 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) Hidden $17.08 24.4 coins $2.13 3.04 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Nova | Ghost Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.08 24.4 coins $2.19 3.13 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $17.08 24.4 coins $2.91 4.15 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.08 24.4 coins $76.30 109 coins 4.47x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $17.08 24.4 coins $95.20 136 coins 5.57x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) Hidden $17.08 24.4 coins $2.13 3.04 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 04:32 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.08 24.4 coins $6.80 9.71 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 04:32 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $17.08 24.4 coins $2.91 4.15 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 04:32 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $17.08 24.4 coins $11.33 16.18 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 04:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.08 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.16 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.85 | 90.91% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 22.2% extraordinary 3.4% covert 8.4% industrial 16.0% classified 13.0% consumer 14.5% mil spec 22.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt