--- title: "BBQ case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BBQ ($35.92) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 97.14% over 670 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq rendered: 2026-11-11T13:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [BBQ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · BBQ A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq?window=all) Price · $35.92 · 51.31 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $32.65 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.14% · 670 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 98.24% ±10.99 524 openings 30 days · 97.14% ±9.74 670 openings since tracking started · 97.14% ±9.74 670 openings 76.0% 115.5% 155.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq?window=24h) | 42 | 115.65% ±38.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq?window=7d) | 524 | 98.24% ±11.0 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq) | 670 | 97.14% ±9.74 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bbq?window=all) | 670 | 97.14% ±9.74 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 670 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $743 1,061 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $431 616 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 20,000 | $348 497 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $278 397 coins | 4.3% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.60× | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $244 348 coins | 14.9% | 17 | 13.4 | 1.27× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $183 262 coins | 5.6% | 9 | 6.7 | 1.34× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $79.10 113 coins | 9.7% | 31 | 26.8 | 1.16× | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $65.65 93.78 coins | 10.1% | 34 | 33.5 | 1.01× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $63.06 90.09 coins | 13.5% | 53 | 46.9 | 1.13× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $50.27 71.81 coins | 14.6% | 63 | 63.5 | 0.99× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $49.06 70.09 coins | 10.5% | 49 | 46.9 | 1.04× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 14.0% | $15.79 22.56 coins | 6.8% | 94 | 93.8 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 15.0% | $15.49 22.13 coins | 7.1% | 92 | 100.5 | 0.92× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $3.34 4.77 coins | 0.3% | 18 | 20.1 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| Watermelon Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-buttery-holo) | 16.0% | $3.14 4.48 coins | 1.5% | 94 | 107.2 | 0.88× | | [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-battle-scarred) | 16.0% | $1.65 2.35 coins | 0.8% | 114 | 107.2 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bbq) [M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.92 51.31 coins $79.10 113 coins 2.20x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) Hidden $35.92 51.31 coins $15.49 22.13 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) Hidden $35.92 51.31 coins $15.49 22.13 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) [Fuksas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fuksas) $35.92 51.31 coins $15.49 22.13 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Isaac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.92 51.31 coins $1.65 2.35 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) Hidden $35.92 51.31 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) Hidden $35.92 51.31 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) Hidden $35.92 51.31 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC [Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.92 51.31 coins $49.06 70.09 coins 1.37x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) [Avyrian](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Avyrian) $35.92 51.31 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 1.40x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $35.92 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $36.52 | 90.91% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $36.60 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.32 | 90.92% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.5% extraordinary 0.5% restricted 2.0% mil spec 42.0% industrial 8.0% classified 21.0% remarkable 16.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt