--- title: "BCX case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BCX ($15.11) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 11 items with odds, observed 82.90% over 28K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [BCX](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · BCX A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx?window=all) Price · $15.11 · 21.59 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $13.74 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.90% · 28K openings, odds method Variance · 156.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 133 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72.89% ±42.52 3,320 openings 7 days · 82.45% ±15.82 23.6K openings 30 days · 82.90% ±14.54 28K openings since tracking started · 82.90% ±14.54 28K openings 29.5% 72.7% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx?window=24h) | 3,320 | 72.89% ±42.5 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx?window=7d) | 23.6K | 82.45% ±15.8 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx) | 28K | 82.90% ±14.5 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bcx?window=all) | 28K | 82.90% ±14.5 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x IBP (Holo) (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear-4x-ibp-holo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40,000 | $26.3K 37,500 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 40,000 | $14.4K 20,545 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,505 12,150 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 7.6% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.25× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,285 1,835 coins | 18.7% | 62 | 55.9 | 1.11× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $676 966 coins | 2.5% | 18 | 14.0 | 1.29× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $563 804 coins | 18.4% | 122 | 125.8 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $430 614 coins | 23.5% | 188 | 209.7 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $323 462 coins | 17.7% | 211 | 209.7 | 1.01× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $18.97 27.1 coins | 1.0% | 194 | 209.7 | 0.92× | | [Sticker \| This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) | 97.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 27,157 | 27127.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-07 15:43 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-07 06:24 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) [MR.MO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MR.MO) $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-07 05:34 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) [whitenemo ✈](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/whitenemo%20%E2%9C%88) $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-06 23:08 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-06 17:00 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) [pond swimmer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/pond%20swimmer) $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-05 13:19 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-05 13:19 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-05 08:46 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-04 10:53 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $15.36 21.94 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 171.8x 2026-11-04 06:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bcx) [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) [Sherm](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sherm) $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $15.11 21.59 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $15.11 | 90.90% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.13 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.11 | 90.93% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.36 | 90.89% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% contraband 0.0% covert 0.8% extraordinary 0.3% rare 0.4% restricted 0.8% mil spec 0.8% high 97.0% best hit $2,639 (171.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt