--- title: "Beehive case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Beehive ($120.39) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.95% over 91 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Beehive](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Beehive A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive?window=all) Price · $120.39 · 172 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $109.45 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.95% · 91 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 91 openings · below min 30 days · 91 openings · below min since tracking started · 91 openings · below min 12.0% 58.7% 105.5% **Small sample.** 91 openings and 25.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive?window=24h) | 12 | 56.28% ±43.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive?window=7d) | 91 | 88.95% ±15.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive) | 91 | 88.95% ±15.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/beehive?window=all) | 91 | 88.95% ±15.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,066 1,523 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $624 891 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $488 697 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $465 664 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $273 390 coins | 7.0% | 6 | 2.5 | 2.35× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $273 390 coins | 8.7% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $253 361 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $230 328 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $202 289 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) | 12.0% | $164 234 coins | 18.0% | 7 | 10.9 | 0.64× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $133 190 coins | 5.5% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $111 159 coins | 6.1% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 15.4% | $104 148 coins | 14.6% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $74.20 106 coins | 9.5% | 17 | 12.7 | 1.33× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $62.27 88.95 coins | 4.4% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-factory-new) | 14.0% | $61.96 88.52 coins | 7.9% | 15 | 12.7 | 1.18× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 15.0% | $21.55 30.78 coins | 3.0% | 11 | 13.7 | 0.81× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=beehive) [M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) Hidden $120 172 coins $21.55 30.78 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 17:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $120 172 coins $62.27 88.95 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 17:18 UTC [UMP-45 | Caramel (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-factory-new) Hidden $120 172 coins $61.96 88.52 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 17:18 UTC [UMP-45 | Caramel (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-factory-new) Hidden $120 172 coins $61.96 88.52 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 17:18 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $120 172 coins $74.20 106 coins 0.62x 2026-11-10 17:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $120 172 coins $62.27 88.95 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 17:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) Hidden $120 172 coins $21.55 30.78 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $120 172 coins $74.20 106 coins 0.62x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $120 172 coins $62.27 88.95 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) Hidden $120 172 coins $104 148 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $121 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 42.0% restricted 16.6% extraordinary 0.4% mil spec 12.0% consumer 14.0% classified 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt