--- title: "Benchmark case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Benchmark ($296.88) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 99.89% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Benchmark](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Benchmark A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark?window=all) Price · $296.88 · 424 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $269.89 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.89% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min 44.5% 99.5% 154.5% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 7.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark?window=7d) | 18 | 99.48% ±54.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark) | 30 | 99.89% ±42.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/benchmark?window=all) | 30 | 99.89% ±42.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,294 10,420 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $1,606 2,294 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $1,514 2,163 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $1,366 1,952 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $999 1,427 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $941 1,344 coins | 9.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $888 1,269 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $570 814 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 286 | $454 649 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 15.0% | $410 586 coins | 22.8% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 12.0% | $282 403 coins | 12.5% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 22 | $232 332 coins | 3.9% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.22× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $181 258 coins | 4.0% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.78× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 13 | $157 224 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $141 201 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× | | [★ Gut Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife) | 14.0% | $54.89 78.42 coins | 2.8% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 15.4% | $49.33 70.47 coins | 2.8% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $299 427 coins $1,632 2,331 coins 5.46x 2026-11-03 04:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $299 427 coins $944 1,348 coins 3.15x 2026-11-04 21:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $299 427 coins $944 1,348 coins 3.15x 2026-11-04 21:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=benchmark) [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $299 427 coins $395 564 coins 1.32x 2026-11-04 21:40 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $299 427 coins $293 419 coins 0.98x 2026-11-04 21:40 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $299 427 coins $193 275 coins 0.64x 2026-11-04 21:40 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) Hidden $299 427 coins $49.64 70.91 coins 0.17x 2026-11-04 21:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $299 427 coins $231 330 coins 0.77x 2026-11-04 21:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $299 427 coins $944 1,348 coins 3.15x 2026-11-04 21:40 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $299 427 coins $395 564 coins 1.32x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $299 427 coins $395 564 coins 1.32x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) Hidden $299 427 coins $49.64 70.91 coins 0.17x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $299 427 coins $193 275 coins 0.64x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $297 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $297 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $299 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 83.8% extraordinary 16.2% best hit $1,632 (5.46x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt