--- title: "Birthday Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Birthday Case ($52.38) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.09% over 221 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Birthday Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Birthday Case A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case?window=all) Price · $52.38 · 74.83 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $47.62 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.09% · 221 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 87.88% ±24.00 211 openings 30 days · 88.09% ±23.46 221 openings since tracking started · 88.09% ±23.46 221 openings 63.0% 87.8% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case?window=7d) | 211 | 87.88% ±24.0 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case) | 221 | 88.09% ±23.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/birthday-case?window=all) | 221 | 88.09% ±23.5 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 221 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 3,030 | $1,766 2,523 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $1,089 1,555 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $723 1,033 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $452 646 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $404 577 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $356 508 coins | 22.4% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.21× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $167 238 coins | 10.5% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 22 | $134 192 coins | 12.7% | 6 | 9.9 | 0.60× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $109 156 coins | 11.5% | 6 | 11.1 | 0.54× | | [MLG Columbus 2016 Train Souvenir Package container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/mlg-columbus-2016-train-souvenir-package) | 1 in 15 | $81.90 117 coins | 11.7% | 15 | 15.0 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $41.98 59.97 coins | 6.2% | 16 | 15.5 | 1.03× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $23.07 32.95 coins | 4.6% | 19 | 21.0 | 0.90× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 10.0% | $20.60 29.43 coins | 4.3% | 19 | 22.1 | 0.86× | | [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 10.0% | $14.76 21.09 coins | 3.1% | 30 | 22.1 | 1.36× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 14.0% | $3.49 4.98 coins | 1.0% | 39 | 30.9 | 1.26× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $3.39 4.84 coins | 0.8% | 25 | 25.0 | 1.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-well-worn) | 15.0% | $1.42 2.03 coins | 0.4% | 27 | 33.1 | 0.81× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=birthday-case) [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) Hidden $52.38 74.83 coins $3.49 4.98 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) Hidden $52.38 74.83 coins $3.49 4.98 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-well-worn) Hidden $52.38 74.83 coins $1.42 2.03 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) Hidden $52.38 74.83 coins $14.76 21.09 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) Hidden $52.38 74.83 coins $14.76 21.09 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) [Michał](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Micha%C5%82) $52.38 74.83 coins $41.98 59.97 coins 0.80x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-well-worn) Hidden $52.38 74.83 coins $1.42 2.03 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 21:43 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $52.38 74.83 coins $41.98 59.97 coins 0.80x 2026-11-09 21:43 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $52.38 74.83 coins $23.07 32.95 coins 0.44x 2026-11-09 21:43 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) [Jonboy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jonboy) $52.38 74.83 coins $20.60 29.43 coins 0.39x 2026-11-09 21:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $52.38 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $51.63 | 90.91% | 17 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $53.09 | 90.90% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.09 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.7% restricted 37.0% epic 3.0% mil spec 31.5% base 6.8% pink 14.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt