---
title: "Blacksmith case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Blacksmith ($28.96) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 17 items with odds, observed 87.29% over 552 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Blacksmith](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Blacksmith

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith?window=all)

Price · $28.96 · 41.37 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $26.32 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.29% · 552 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94 openings · below min

7 days · 88.83% ±10.21 441 openings

30 days · 87.29% ±9.14 552 openings

since tracking started · 87.29% ±9.14 552 openings

62.0% 84.5% 107.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith?window=24h) | 94 | 84.48% ±21.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith?window=7d) | 441 | 88.83% ±10.2 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith) | 552 | 87.29% ±9.14 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blacksmith?window=all) | 552 | 87.29% ±9.14 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 552 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $241 344 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $180 257 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $110 157 coins | 11.7% | 13 | 15.5 | 0.84× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $75.60 108 coins | 40.2% | 60 | 77.3 | 0.78× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $74.20 106 coins | 1.0% | 6 | 1.9 | 3.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $65.79 93.98 coins | 8.7% | 32 | 19.3 | 1.66× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $65.25 93.21 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $60.47 86.39 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $51.58 73.69 coins | 3.3% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $45.06 64.37 coins | 2.2% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $27.62 39.45 coins | 4.7% | 34 | 24.8 | 1.37× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $18.20 26 coins | 5.4% | 45 | 43.1 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $17.47 24.95 coins | 4.0% | 29 | 33.1 | 0.88× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-well-worn) | 12.0% | $13.40 19.14 coins | 6.1% | 59 | 66.2 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $4.61 6.58 coins | 2.4% | 78 | 77.3 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 15.0% | $3.91 5.58 coins | 2.2% | 74 | 82.8 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 15.4% | $3.83 5.47 coins | 2.2% | 98 | 85.0 | 1.15× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=blacksmith)

[USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) Hidden $28.96 41.37 coins $3.91 5.58 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) Hidden $28.96 41.37 coins $18.20 26 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $28.96 41.37 coins $51.58 73.69 coins 1.78x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.96 41.37 coins $75.60 108 coins 2.61x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $28.96 41.37 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) [El Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/El%20Gamblino%20%F0%9D%93%9C%F0%9D%93%90%F0%9D%93%95%F0%9D%93%98%F0%9D%93%90) $28.96 41.37 coins $75.60 108 coins 2.61x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) Hidden $28.96 41.37 coins $3.83 5.47 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) Hidden $28.96 41.37 coins $3.83 5.47 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.96 41.37 coins $4.61 6.58 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) Hidden $28.96 41.37 coins $3.91 5.58 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $28.96 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $28.80 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.93 | 90.90% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 23.6% classified 47.4% industrial 14.0% mil spec 15.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt