--- title: "Blindshot case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Blindshot ($6.10) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 14 items with odds, observed 91.27% over 6,124 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Blindshot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Blindshot A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot?window=all) Price · $6.10 · 8.71 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $5.54 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.27% · 6,124 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.64% ±6.68 979 openings 7 days · 91.62% ±2.75 5,466 openings 30 days · 91.27% ±2.60 6,124 openings since tracking started · 91.27% ±2.60 6,124 openings 86.5% 93.8% 101.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot?window=24h) | 979 | 93.64% ±6.68 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot?window=7d) | 5,466 | 91.62% ±2.75 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot) | 6,124 | 91.27% ±2.60 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blindshot?window=all) | 6,124 | 91.27% ±2.60 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,124 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $48.87 69.82 coins | 0.4% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 0.7% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× | | [FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $27.71 39.58 coins | 7.5% | 106 | 91.9 | 1.15× | | [P250 \| Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $18.72 26.75 coins | 21.1% | 390 | 382.8 | 1.02× | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-well-worn) | 1 in 444 | $16.49 23.55 coins | 0.7% | 11 | 13.8 | 0.80× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $12.27 17.53 coins | 13.8% | 373 | 382.8 | 0.97× | | [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $11.69 16.7 coins | 2.4% | 61 | 68.9 | 0.89× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $10.66 15.23 coins | 6.3% | 220 | 199.0 | 1.11× | | [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 12.5% | $10.22 14.6 coins | 23.0% | 752 | 765.5 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $9.09 12.99 coins | 10.3% | 361 | 382.8 | 0.94× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $5.56 7.95 coins | 6.3% | 374 | 382.8 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) | 12.5% | $3.32 4.74 coins | 7.5% | 775 | 765.5 | 1.01× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 18.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,173 | 1148.3 | 1.02× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,518 | 1531.0 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=blindshot) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.10 8.71 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.10 8.71 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) [PochiDaBun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PochiDaBun) $6.10 8.71 coins $5.56 7.95 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.10 8.71 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $6.10 8.71 coins $10.22 14.6 coins 1.68x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [FAMAS | Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) Hidden $6.10 8.71 coins $27.71 39.58 coins 4.54x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.10 8.71 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) Hidden $6.10 8.71 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 2.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $6.10 8.71 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 1.49x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) Hidden $6.10 8.71 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 2.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.10 | 90.92% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.17 | 90.91% | 14 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $6.29 | 90.95% | 14 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.24 | 90.87% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.42 | 90.86% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 19.0% covert 0.1% restricted 14.0% consumer 50.0% mil spec 4.4% violet 12.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt