--- title: "Blood Moon case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Blood Moon ($26.94) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 11 items with odds, observed 90.26% over 4,663 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Blood Moon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Blood Moon A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon?window=all) Price · $26.94 · 38.49 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $24.50 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.26% · 4,663 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.02% ±16.78 471 openings 7 days · 88.54% ±5.99 3,730 openings 30 days · 90.26% ±5.36 4,663 openings since tracking started · 90.26% ±5.36 4,663 openings 72.5% 90.0% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon?window=24h) | 471 | 90.02% ±16.8 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon?window=7d) | 3,730 | 88.54% ±5.99 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon) | 4,663 | 90.26% ±5.36 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon?window=all) | 4,663 | 90.26% ±5.36 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,668 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $193 276 coins | 55.2% | 327 | 326.8 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $186 266 coins | 6.1% | 29 | 37.3 | 0.78× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $42.41 60.58 coins | 8.7% | 226 | 233.4 | 0.97× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $41.94 59.92 coins | 2.1% | 49 | 56.0 | 0.87× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $25.77 36.81 coins | 2.1% | 123 | 93.4 | 1.32× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $25.17 35.95 coins | 2.4% | 111 | 107.4 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $17.86 25.51 coins | 3.6% | 241 | 233.4 | 1.03× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $15.88 22.69 coins | 1.8% | 131 | 126.0 | 1.04× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $13.16 18.8 coins | 4.3% | 381 | 373.4 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 27.0% | $12.27 17.53 coins | 13.5% | 1,249 | 1260.4 | 0.99× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) | 39.0% | $0.20 0.28 coins | 0.3% | 1,801 | 1820.5 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=blood-moon) [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $13.16 18.8 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $42.41 60.58 coins 1.57x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:06 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.94 38.49 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.94 | 90.92% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.05 | 90.91% | 11 | | 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $27.57 | 90.91% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $27.56 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.56 | 90.92% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.0% classified 31.3% mil spec 43.7% restricted 13.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt