--- title: "Bloodlust case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bloodlust ($38.94) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 94.69% over 9,778 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust rendered: 2026-11-11T17:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Bloodlust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Bloodlust A case on CSGORoll (10%, hot, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust?window=all) Price · $38.94 · 55.63 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $35.40 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.69% · 9,778 openings, odds method Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100.57% ±21.21 657 openings 7 days · 92.96% ±6.16 7,753 openings 30 days · 94.69% ±5.48 9,778 openings since tracking started · 94.69% ±5.48 9,778 openings 78.5% 100.5% 122.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust?window=24h) | 657 | 100.57% ±21.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust?window=7d) | 7,753 | 92.96% ±6.16 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust) | 9,778 | 94.69% ±5.48 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodlust?window=all) | 9,778 | 94.69% ±5.48 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,778 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $9,342 13,345 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 333,333 | $6,888 9,840 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 500,000 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,076 2,965 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,667 | $760 1,086 coins | 1.3% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.36× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $624 891 coins | 2.6% | 10 | 14.7 | 0.68× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $611 873 coins | 5.2% | 27 | 29.3 | 0.92× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $485 693 coins | 16.4% | 126 | 117.3 | 1.07× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 250 | $421 602 coins | 4.8% | 44 | 39.1 | 1.12× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $394 563 coins | 5.6% | 68 | 48.9 | 1.39× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $382 545 coins | 14.0% | 104 | 127.1 | 0.82× | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $350 500 coins | 13.8% | 150 | 136.9 | 1.10× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $291 416 coins | 12.3% | 160 | 146.7 | 1.09× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $251 359 coins | 12.1% | 187 | 166.2 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $47.66 68.09 coins | 3.3% | 243 | 242.9 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Seeing Red (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seeing-red-foil) | 30.0% | $4.07 5.81 coins | 3.4% | 2,906 | 2933.4 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Ruby Wave (Lenticular) sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave-lenticular) | 29.0% | $3.33 4.76 coins | 2.7% | 2,867 | 2835.6 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Ruby Stream (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream-lenticular) | 30.0% | $2.27 3.24 coins | 1.9% | 2,878 | 2933.4 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $39.56 56.52 coins $839 1,198 coins 21.20x 2026-11-08 11:18 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) [Der beste Uwe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Der%20beste%20Uwe) $39.56 56.52 coins $839 1,198 coins 21.20x 2026-11-07 22:31 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $39.56 56.52 coins $839 1,198 coins 21.20x 2026-11-05 22:27 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $39.56 56.52 coins $839 1,198 coins 21.20x 2026-11-05 20:04 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $39.56 56.52 coins $839 1,198 coins 21.20x 2026-11-05 12:26 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) [Der beste Uwe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Der%20beste%20Uwe) $39.56 56.52 coins $839 1,198 coins 21.20x 2026-11-04 13:41 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $760 1,086 coins 19.52x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $760 1,086 coins 19.52x 2026-11-09 00:28 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $39.56 56.52 coins $627 896 coins 15.85x 2026-11-07 22:51 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $39.56 56.52 coins $627 896 coins 15.85x 2026-11-07 16:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bloodlust) [Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seeing-red-foil) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $4.07 5.81 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream-lenticular) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular) sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave-lenticular) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $3.33 4.76 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream-lenticular) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $38.94 55.63 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seeing-red-foil) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $4.07 5.81 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $47.66 68.09 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular) sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave-lenticular) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $3.33 4.76 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seeing-red-foil) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $4.07 5.81 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seeing-red-foil) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $4.07 5.81 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular) sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave-lenticular) Hidden $38.94 55.63 coins $3.33 4.76 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.94 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.08 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.56 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.6% legendary 0.0% restricted 0.4% exotic 30.0% #eb4b4b 29.0% extraordinary 30.0% best hit $839 (21.20x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt