---
title: "Bloodshot case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bloodshot ($9.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 15 items with odds, observed 87.80% over 5,694 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Bloodshot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Bloodshot

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot?window=all)

Price · $9.09 · 12.98 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $8.26 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.80% · 5,694 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.17% ±15.59 607 openings

7 days · 88.43% ±5.51 4,866 openings

30 days · 87.80% ±5.09 5,694 openings

since tracking started · 87.80% ±5.09 5,694 openings

78.0% 94.3% 110.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot?window=24h) | 607 | 94.17% ±15.6 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot?window=7d) | 4,866 | 88.43% ±5.51 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot) | 5,694 | 87.80% ±5.09 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bloodshot?window=all) | 5,694 | 87.80% ±5.09 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,709 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $190 271 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $148 212 coins | 0.5% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.92× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $99.40 142 coins | 0.6% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $76.30 109 coins | 4.6% | 26 | 28.5 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $62.36 89.09 coins | 15.1% | 96 | 114.2 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $41.94 59.92 coins | 15.2% | 170 | 171.3 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $25.17 35.95 coins | 24.4% | 433 | 456.7 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $21.20 30.28 coins | 12.8% | 295 | 285.4 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 10.0% | $8.44 12.05 coins | 10.2% | 580 | 570.9 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 11.4% | $3.64 5.2 coins | 5.0% | 686 | 650.3 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.85 2.64 coins | 3.4% | 863 | 856.4 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.48 2.11 coins | 2.1% | 662 | 685.1 | 0.97× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-well-worn) | 16.0% | $1.13 1.62 coins | 2.2% | 905 | 913.4 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 17.0% | $0.97 1.38 coins | 2.0% | 983 | 970.5 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bloodshot)

[Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) Hidden $9.09 12.98 coins $1.48 2.11 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 12.98 coins $0.97 1.38 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[XM1014 | Seasons (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-well-worn) Hidden $9.09 12.98 coins $1.13 1.62 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 12.98 coins $0.97 1.38 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [ALVEDON](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ALVEDON) $9.09 12.98 coins $62.36 89.09 coins 6.86x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 12.98 coins $62.36 89.09 coins 6.86x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.09 12.98 coins $3.64 5.2 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-well-worn) [tautvas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tautvas) $9.09 12.98 coins $21.20 30.28 coins 2.33x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.09 12.98 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 12.98 coins $0.97 1.38 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $9.09 | 90.93% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.09 | 90.88% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.56 | 90.89% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $9.56 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $9.57 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $9.56 | 90.88% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.56 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 27.4% covert 2.6% restricted 55.0% Mythical 15.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt