--- title: "Blossom case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Blossom ($240.15) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 89.66% over 574 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Blossom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Blossom A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom?window=all) Price · $240.15 · 343 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $218.32 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.66% · 574 openings, odds method Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 52 openings · below min 7 days · 91.01% ±26.29 550 openings 30 days · 89.66% ±25.74 574 openings since tracking started · 89.66% ±25.74 574 openings -0.5% 59.3% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom?window=24h) | 52 | 32.64% ±85.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom?window=7d) | 550 | 91.01% ±26.3 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom) | 574 | 89.66% ±25.7 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blossom?window=all) | 574 | 89.66% ±25.7 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 574 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $13.5K 19,275 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $11.4K 16,295 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $10.7K 15,300 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $7,336 10,480 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,335 9,050 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 333 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 5.6% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.90× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,454 3,505 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 133 | $1,325 1,893 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× | | [Sticker \| DD (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dd-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 25 | $1,174 1,677 coins | 21.5% | 20 | 23.0 | 0.87× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,047 1,495 coins | 9.6% | 17 | 11.5 | 1.48× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $878 1,254 coins | 12.1% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.05× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $606 865 coins | 2.8% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.52× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $256 366 coins | 7.0% | 37 | 34.4 | 1.07× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 15 | $224 320 coins | 6.8% | 41 | 38.1 | 1.08× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 37.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 210 | 215.3 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 37.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 218 | 215.3 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [🟢Kick: JULSY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20JULSY) $243 347 coins $11.4K 16,295 coins 46.99x 2026-11-04 19:11 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $240 343 coins $6,335 9,050 coins 26.38x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $243 347 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 17.73x 2026-11-05 18:17 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $240 343 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 17.02x 2026-11-09 04:28 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $243 347 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 16.84x 2026-11-07 23:53 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $243 347 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 16.84x 2026-11-07 15:03 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $243 347 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 16.84x 2026-11-07 15:02 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $243 347 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 16.84x 2026-11-04 18:51 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $243 347 coins $2,461 3,515 coins 10.14x 2026-11-06 16:07 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $243 347 coins $1,368 1,954 coins 5.63x 2026-11-06 17:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=blossom) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $240 343 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $240 343 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $240 343 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $240 343 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $240 343 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $240 343 coins $256 366 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $240 343 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:44 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $240 343 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:44 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $240 343 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:38 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $240 343 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $240 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $243 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.6% covert 20.1% extraordinary 4.0% remarkable 0.3% consumer 75.0% best hit $11.4K (46.99x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt