---
title: "Blue Skies case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Blue Skies ($71.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 91.70% over 308 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Blue Skies](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Blue Skies

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies?window=all)

Price · $71.51 · 102 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $65.01 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.70% · 308 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 14 openings · below min

7 days · 97.00% ±27.26 110 openings

30 days · 91.70% ±16.36 308 openings

since tracking started · 91.70% ±16.36 308 openings

27.5% 103.5% 179.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies?window=24h) | 14 | 103.40% ±75.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies?window=7d) | 110 | 97.00% ±27.3 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies) | 308 | 91.70% ±16.4 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies?window=all) | 308 | 91.70% ±16.4 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 308 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $723 1,033 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $708 1,011 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $648 925 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $385 550 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $292 417 coins | 9.0% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $186 266 coins | 20.0% | 27 | 21.6 | 1.25× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $182 260 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $143 204 coins | 6.6% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $104 149 coins | 9.6% | 22 | 18.5 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $81.20 116 coins | 7.5% | 21 | 18.5 | 1.14× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 10.0% | $72.80 104 coins | 11.2% | 20 | 30.8 | 0.65× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $66.79 95.42 coins | 9.2% | 30 | 27.7 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $48.33 69.05 coins | 3.7% | 12 | 15.4 | 0.78× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $28.27 40.38 coins | 4.3% | 33 | 30.8 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 10.4% | $21.95 31.35 coins | 3.5% | 31 | 32.0 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 15.0% | $10.81 15.44 coins | 2.5% | 54 | 46.2 | 1.17× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-well-worn) | 15.0% | $3.58 5.11 coins | 0.8% | 39 | 46.2 | 0.84× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [HodenAmBoden](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/HodenAmBoden) $72.49 104 coins $738 1,054 coins 10.18x 2026-11-06 16:02 UTC

[★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.49 104 coins $738 1,054 coins 10.18x 2026-11-03 22:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=blue-skies)

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $71.51 102 coins $104 149 coins 1.46x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-well-worn) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $71.51 102 coins $3.58 5.11 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

[AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) Hidden $71.51 102 coins $28.27 40.38 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $71.51 102 coins $10.81 15.44 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.51 102 coins $182 260 coins 2.55x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $71.51 102 coins $186 266 coins 2.60x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $71.51 102 coins $21.95 31.35 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) Hidden $71.51 102 coins $143 204 coins 2.00x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $71.51 102 coins $104 149 coins 1.46x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-well-worn) Hidden $71.51 102 coins $3.58 5.11 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $71.51 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.25 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.49 | 90.91% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.1% restricted 15.5% classified 21.0% industrial 10.0% mil spec 35.4% best hit $738 (10.18x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt