---
title: "Blues case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Blues ($0.92) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.66% from 43 items with odds, observed 90.58% over 23.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Blues](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Blues

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues?window=all)

Price · $0.92 · 1.32 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.66% · EV $0.84 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.58% · 23.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 27.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.87% ±24.64 1,764 openings

7 days · 91.37% ±7.24 20.3K openings

30 days · 90.58% ±6.67 23.9K openings

since tracking started · 90.58% ±6.67 23.9K openings

57.5% 82.8% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues?window=24h) | 1,764 | 82.87% ±24.6 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues?window=7d) | 20.3K | 91.37% ±7.24 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues) | 23.9K | 90.58% ±6.67 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues?window=all) | 23.9K | 90.58% ±6.67 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $273 390 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $222 317 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $197 281 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $186 266 coins | 4.4% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.46× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $115 164 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $111 159 coins | 2.7% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $99.40 142 coins | 1.2% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $95.20 136 coins | 1.1% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $93.80 134 coins | 2.2% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $91.70 131 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 4.8 | 0.21× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $91.00 130 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $89.60 128 coins | 2.1% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $84.00 120 coins | 2.0% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $78.40 112 coins | 1.9% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $72.80 104 coins | 1.7% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $59.44 84.91 coins | 1.4% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $46.54 66.48 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $17.72 25.31 coins | 0.4% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.07 21.53 coins | 0.4% | 10 | 4.8 | 2.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.84 4.06 coins | 6.8% | 448 | 478.6 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Navy Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.28 3.25 coins | 5.4% | 468 | 478.6 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.80 2.57 coins | 4.3% | 478 | 478.6 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.13 1.61 coins | 2.7% | 485 | 478.6 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.97 1.38 coins | 3.5% | 733 | 717.8 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.93 1.33 coins | 2.2% | 504 | 478.6 | 1.05× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.89 1.27 coins | 3.2% | 702 | 717.8 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.76 1.09 coins | 3.6% | 990 | 957.1 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.73 1.04 coins | 2.6% | 737 | 717.8 | 1.03× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.72 1.03 coins | 4.3% | 1,234 | 1196.4 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.69 0.99 coins | 3.3% | 923 | 957.1 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.64 0.92 coins | 3.1% | 893 | 957.1 | 0.93× |
| [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.57 0.81 coins | 2.0% | 723 | 717.8 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.57 0.81 coins | 2.7% | 907 | 957.1 | 0.95× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.52 0.74 coins | 2.5% | 931 | 957.1 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.52 0.74 coins | 3.1% | 1,226 | 1196.4 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.50 0.72 coins | 3.0% | 1,211 | 1196.4 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.45 0.64 coins | 2.7% | 1,178 | 1196.4 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.43 0.61 coins | 2.5% | 1,179 | 1196.4 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.35 0.5 coins | 2.1% | 1,217 | 1196.4 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.34 0.48 coins | 2.0% | 1,189 | 1196.4 | 0.99× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-riot-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.30 0.43 coins | 1.8% | 1,145 | 1196.4 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.26 0.37 coins | 2.2% | 1,685 | 1675.0 | 1.01× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-well-worn) | 10.7% | $0.11 0.16 coins | 1.4% | 2,677 | 2566.5 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.92 1.31 coins $273 390 coins 297.7x 2026-11-06 18:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $186 266 coins 201.5x 2026-11-10 12:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $186 266 coins 201.5x 2026-11-09 00:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [war](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/war) $0.92 1.31 coins $178 254 coins 193.9x 2026-11-07 15:49 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [simsonbertil](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/simsonbertil) $0.92 1.31 coins $178 254 coins 193.9x 2026-11-07 10:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Marlboro Red](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Marlboro%20Red) $0.92 1.31 coins $178 254 coins 193.9x 2026-11-06 13:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [ابو رضوان](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%88%20%D8%B1%D8%B6%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86) $0.92 1.31 coins $178 254 coins 193.9x 2026-11-03 20:55 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 1.31 coins $178 254 coins 193.9x 2026-11-03 17:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.92 1.31 coins $116 166 coins 126.7x 2026-11-07 02:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.92 1.31 coins $116 166 coins 126.7x 2026-11-06 22:49 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=blues)

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.52 0.74 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-well-worn) [Vobbe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vobbe) $0.92 1.32 coins $0.11 0.16 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.52 0.74 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Grip (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-factory-new) [Vobbe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vobbe) $0.92 1.32 coins $0.72 1.03 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.89 1.27 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-well-worn) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.11 0.16 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[AUG | Storm (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.76 1.09 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-riot-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.30 0.43 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $0.92 | 90.66% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.92 | 90.60% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.92 | 90.69% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.92 | 90.89% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.92 | 90.71% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.92 | 91.22% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.92 | 91.14% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.92 | 91.13% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $0.92 | 91.06% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $0.92 | 91.06% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.92 | 90.58% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $0.92 | 90.69% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.92 | 90.71% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $0.92 | 91.16% | 43 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.92 | 90.68% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 25.0% covert 0.1% classified 0.1% mil spec 58.8% industrial 5.0% consumer 6.0% #8847ff 5.0% best hit $273 (297.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.66 on average: an expected loss of $9.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt