--- title: "Blur case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Blur ($24.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 12 items with odds, observed 99.98% over 1,442 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Blur](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Blur A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur?window=all) Price · $24.08 · 34.4 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $21.89 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.98% · 1,442 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 137.13% ±34.30 127 openings 7 days · 102.72% ±10.71 1,285 openings 30 days · 99.98% ±10.11 1,442 openings since tracking started · 99.98% ±10.11 1,442 openings 89.0% 130.5% 172.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur?window=24h) | 127 | 137.13% ±34.3 | +2.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur?window=7d) | 1,285 | 102.72% ±10.7 | +2.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur) | 1,442 | 99.98% ±10.1 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blur?window=all) | 1,442 | 99.98% ±10.1 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,442 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $888 1,269 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $827 1,182 coins | 3.8% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.08× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $806 1,152 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $795 1,136 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 0.7 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $87.50 125 coins | 6.0% | 21 | 21.6 | 0.97× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $83.30 119 coins | 57.1% | 234 | 216.3 | 1.08× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $39.07 55.82 coins | 5.4% | 43 | 43.3 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 10.3% | $34.25 48.93 coins | 16.1% | 133 | 148.4 | 0.90× | | [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.20 7.43 coins | 3.6% | 220 | 216.3 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $4.60 6.57 coins | 3.2% | 220 | 216.3 | 1.02× | | [G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.32 1.89 coins | 0.9% | 215 | 216.3 | 0.99× | | [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 350 | 360.5 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $23.53 33.61 coins $817 1,167 coins 34.72x 2026-11-08 11:04 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $795 1,136 coins 33.02x 2026-11-11 06:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $795 1,136 coins 33.02x 2026-11-11 04:07 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.51 33.58 coins $706 1,008 coins 30.02x 2026-11-06 15:14 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) [xSazukiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/xSazukiii) $23.51 33.58 coins $706 1,008 coins 30.02x 2026-11-04 20:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) [xSazukiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/xSazukiii) $23.51 33.58 coins $706 1,008 coins 30.02x 2026-11-04 18:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=blur) [Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $4.60 6.57 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $24.08 34.4 coins $1.32 1.89 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $83.30 119 coins 3.46x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $83.30 119 coins 3.46x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $1.32 1.89 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.08 34.4 coins $4.60 6.57 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $24.08 | 90.92% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $24.14 | 90.92% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.63 | 90.90% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $23.53 | 90.90% | 12 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $23.51 | 90.90% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.51 | 90.92% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.1% extraordinary 0.1% classified 11.8% mil spec 33.0% consumer 40.0% best hit $817 (34.72x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt