--- title: "Boiling point case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Boiling point ($14.11) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 19 items with odds, observed 93.78% over 2,534 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point rendered: 2026-11-11T15:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Boiling point](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Boiling point A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point?window=all) Price · $14.11 · 20.16 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $12.83 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.78% · 2,534 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 102.44% ±21.50 271 openings 7 days · 95.57% ±7.69 2,182 openings 30 days · 93.78% ±7.16 2,534 openings since tracking started · 93.78% ±7.16 2,534 openings 80.5% 102.5% 124.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point?window=24h) | 271 | 102.44% ±21.5 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point?window=7d) | 2,182 | 95.57% ±7.69 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point) | 2,534 | 93.78% ±7.16 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boiling-point?window=all) | 2,534 | 93.78% ±7.16 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,534 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $362 517 coins | 2.8% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.58× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $304 434 coins | 3.6% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× | | [ESL One Katowice 2015 Legends (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-legends-holo-foil) | 1 in 182 | $148 211 coins | 6.3% | 15 | 13.9 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $108 154 coins | 10.1% | 28 | 30.4 | 0.92× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $91.00 130 coins | 9.5% | 38 | 34.0 | 1.12× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $69.86 99.8 coins | 8.0% | 38 | 37.0 | 1.03× | | [Sticker \| ScreaM \| Boston 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-scream-boston-2018) | 1 in 40 | $24.93 35.61 coins | 4.9% | 59 | 63.4 | 0.93× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $19.94 28.48 coins | 6.7% | 111 | 109.0 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $18.12 25.89 coins | 7.8% | 124 | 139.4 | 0.89× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $15.43 22.05 coins | 8.9% | 196 | 187.5 | 1.05× | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $14.29 20.41 coins | 9.7% | 235 | 220.5 | 1.07× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-remote-control-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $9.03 12.9 coins | 4.6% | 170 | 164.7 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $8.52 12.17 coins | 5.0% | 180 | 190.1 | 0.95× | | [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $5.43 7.76 coins | 3.4% | 200 | 202.7 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Countdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-countdown-foil) | 1 in 12 | $4.38 6.25 coins | 2.9% | 226 | 212.9 | 1.06× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.26 4.65 coins | 2.1% | 219 | 207.8 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ocular-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.74 3.92 coins | 1.9% | 225 | 228.1 | 0.99× | | [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.95 2.78 coins | 1.4% | 244 | 228.1 | 1.07× | | [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-well-worn) | 10.2% | $0.84 1.2 coins | 0.7% | 218 | 258.5 | 0.84× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=boiling-point) [Sticker | Countdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-countdown-foil) Hidden $14.11 20.16 coins $4.38 6.25 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ocular-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.11 20.16 coins $2.74 3.92 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ocular-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.11 20.16 coins $2.74 3.92 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-factory-new) Hidden $14.11 20.16 coins $15.43 22.05 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-well-worn) [Kisu :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kisu%20%3A%29) $14.11 20.16 coins $14.29 20.41 coins 1.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-factory-new) [DingDong](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DingDong) $14.11 20.16 coins $15.43 22.05 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-well-worn) Hidden $14.11 20.16 coins $0.84 1.2 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.11 20.16 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Sticker | Countdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-countdown-foil) Hidden $14.11 20.16 coins $4.38 6.25 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Sticker | Countdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-countdown-foil) Hidden $14.11 20.16 coins $4.38 6.25 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $14.11 | 90.90% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $13.82 | 90.92% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.80 | 90.93% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.06 | 90.91% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $14.06 | 90.92% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $14.10 | 90.93% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.26 | 90.93% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 3 9.0% rare 5.6% covert 1.6% base 0.5% classified 16.5% high 2.5% industrial 4.3% restricted 15.6% consumer 8.7% mil spec 18.2% exotic 8.4% uncommon 9.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt