--- title: "Bonfire case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bonfire ($107.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 102.69% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Bonfire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Bonfire A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire?window=all) Price · $107.09 · 153 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $97.35 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.69% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 27 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min 44.0% 92.5% 141.0% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire?window=7d) | 27 | 88.20% ±43.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire) | 36 | 102.69% ±37.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bonfire?window=all) | 36 | 102.69% ±37.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 250 | $823 1,176 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $436 623 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $404 577 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $403 576 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $384 549 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $361 515 coins | 13.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 133 | $214 306 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $207 296 coins | 8.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 125 | $203 290 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $184 263 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $167 239 coins | 12.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $144 205 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $123 176 coins | 8.2% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.85× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $109 156 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 13 | $85.40 122 coins | 7.0% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.74× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $84.70 121 coins | 4.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 12.0% | $41.94 59.92 coins | 5.2% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $28.20 40.29 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 14.0% | $21.01 30.01 coins | 3.0% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.79× | | [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) | 19.4% | $18.61 26.59 coins | 3.7% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bonfire) [AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $107 153 coins $84.70 121 coins 0.79x 2026-11-10 04:00 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $107 153 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.80x 2026-11-10 04:00 UTC [UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) [GAMASIAK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/GAMASIAK) $107 153 coins $18.61 26.59 coins 0.17x 2026-11-10 04:00 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $107 153 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.80x 2026-11-10 02:35 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $107 153 coins $21.01 30.01 coins 0.20x 2026-11-10 02:35 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $107 153 coins $21.01 30.01 coins 0.20x 2026-11-10 02:35 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) [🟢Kick: Activ3C0ma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20Activ3C0ma) $107 153 coins $28.20 40.29 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 02:35 UTC [P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $107 153 coins $41.94 59.92 coins 0.39x 2026-11-09 18:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [\`FluffyFlow⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%60FluffyFlow%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $107 153 coins $384 549 coins 3.59x 2026-11-09 18:09 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $107 153 coins $361 515 coins 3.37x 2026-11-09 18:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $107 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $107 | 90.91% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $109 | 90.91% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 24.0% restricted 22.5% epic 0.7% classified 20.5% extraordinary 3.0% rare 10.0% uncommon 19.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt