--- title: "Boomstick case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Boomstick ($72.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 82.02% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Boomstick](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Boomstick A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick?window=all) Price · $72.08 · 103 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $65.52 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.02% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min 37.5% 80.0% 122.5% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 9.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick?window=7d) | 24 | 80.03% ±41.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick) | 30 | 82.02% ±37.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boomstick?window=all) | 30 | 82.02% ±37.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,018 1,454 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $206 294 coins | 6.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $123 176 coins | 5.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $102 145 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $102 145 coins | 9.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $93.10 133 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $88.20 126 coins | 20.2% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $79.10 113 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $66.61 95.15 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $49.60 70.86 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $47.74 68.2 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $46.98 67.11 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 17.5% | $44.43 63.47 coins | 11.9% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× | | [P250 \| Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $38.54 55.06 coins | 4.1% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $36.88 52.69 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 15.0% | $31.18 44.55 coins | 7.1% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× | | [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $24.49 34.98 coins | 2.6% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.90× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=boomstick) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $72.08 103 coins $31.18 44.55 coins 0.43x 2026-11-09 12:03 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $72.08 103 coins $31.18 44.55 coins 0.43x 2026-11-09 12:03 UTC [P250 | Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) Hidden $72.08 103 coins $38.54 55.06 coins 0.53x 2026-11-09 12:03 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) Hidden $72.08 103 coins $49.60 70.86 coins 0.69x 2026-11-09 12:03 UTC [P250 | Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) Hidden $72.08 103 coins $38.54 55.06 coins 0.53x 2026-11-09 12:03 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) [Elze](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Elze) $72.08 103 coins $44.43 63.47 coins 0.62x 2026-11-09 12:03 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-well-worn) Hidden $72.08 103 coins $47.74 68.2 coins 0.66x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) Hidden $72.08 103 coins $88.20 126 coins 1.22x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) Hidden $72.08 103 coins $44.43 63.47 coins 0.62x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) Hidden $72.08 103 coins $44.43 63.47 coins 0.62x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.08 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $73.22 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.79 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 40.5% restricted 10.0% extraordinary 4.0% blue 17.5% classified 28.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt