---
title: "Borealis case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Borealis ($175.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 80.96% over 579 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Borealis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Borealis

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis?window=all)

Price · $175.99 · 251 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $159.99 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.96% · 579 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 81.96% ±15.50 572 openings

30 days · 80.96% ±15.41 579 openings

since tracking started · 80.96% ±15.41 579 openings

-0.5% 115.3% 231.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis?window=24h) | 5 | 64.86% ±165.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis?window=7d) | 572 | 81.96% ±15.5 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis) | 579 | 80.96% ±15.4 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/borealis?window=all) | 579 | 80.96% ±15.4 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 579 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,769 3,955 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $2,090 2,985 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,250 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,662 2,374 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 500 | $1,567 2,239 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $1,424 2,034 coins | 2.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $1,144 1,634 coins | 7.1% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $1,132 1,617 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 250 | $1,077 1,539 coins | 2.7% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,050 1,500 coins | 1.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.73× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $920 1,315 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 67 | $884 1,263 coins | 8.3% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 40 | $832 1,188 coins | 13.0% | 9 | 14.5 | 0.62× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 33 | $641 916 coins | 12.0% | 23 | 17.4 | 1.32× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $568 812 coins | 10.7% | 19 | 17.4 | 1.09× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $566 808 coins | 8.8% | 8 | 14.5 | 0.55× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · legendary · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 22 | $330 471 coins | 9.3% | 18 | 26.1 | 0.69× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $307 438 coins | 8.6% | 34 | 26.1 | 1.30× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.92 1.31 coins | 0.1% | 139 | 144.8 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.57 0.81 coins | 0.1% | 150 | 144.8 | 1.04× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Lumen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.43 0.61 coins | 0.1% | 155 | 144.8 | 1.07× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $176 251 coins $2,716 3,880 coins 15.43x 2026-11-09 04:51 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) Hidden $176 251 coins $2,090 2,985 coins 11.87x 2026-11-09 06:10 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $176 251 coins $1,567 2,239 coins 8.91x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $176 251 coins $1,567 2,239 coins 8.91x 2026-11-09 03:41 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) Hidden $179 255 coins $1,471 2,102 coins 8.23x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $176 251 coins $1,424 2,034 coins 8.09x 2026-11-09 06:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $179 255 coins $1,167 1,667 coins 6.53x 2026-11-05 18:12 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $179 255 coins $1,167 1,667 coins 6.53x 2026-11-04 19:35 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $176 251 coins $1,144 1,634 coins 6.50x 2026-11-09 05:32 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $176 251 coins $1,144 1,634 coins 6.50x 2026-11-09 05:14 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=borealis)

[AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) Hidden $176 251 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:51 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Lumen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-battle-scarred) Hidden $176 251 coins $0.43 0.61 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:51 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $176 251 coins $568 812 coins 3.23x 2026-11-11 01:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $176 251 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:50 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Lumen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-battle-scarred) Hidden $176 251 coins $0.43 0.61 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) Hidden $176 251 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) Hidden $176 251 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) [BaCraMo- csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BaCraMo-%20csgoroll.com) $176 251 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $176 251 coins $641 916 coins 3.64x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) Hidden $176 251 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.7% extraordinary 7.4% legendary 10.9% restricted 50.0% #4b69ff 25.0% best hit $2,716 (15.43x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt