--- title: "Botanical case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Botanical ($155.60) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 80.07% over 361 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Botanical](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Botanical A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical?window=all) Price · $155.60 · 222 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $141.45 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.07% · 361 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 80.20% ±22.22 355 openings 30 days · 80.07% ±22.03 361 openings since tracking started · 80.07% ±22.03 361 openings -0.5% 164.0% 328.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical?window=24h) | 2 | 30.84% ±296.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical?window=7d) | 355 | 80.20% ±22.2 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical) | 361 | 80.07% ±22.0 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/botanical?window=all) | 361 | 80.07% ±22.0 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 361 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $3,213 4,590 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $2,069 2,955 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $1,100 1,572 coins | 13.2% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.14× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $646 923 coins | 5.9% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.28× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $540 772 coins | 3.1% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× | | [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $421 601 coins | 8.3% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $307 438 coins | 16.9% | 28 | 28.2 | 0.99× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $274 391 coins | 6.8% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $89.60 128 coins | 2.9% | 19 | 16.2 | 1.17× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 14.0% | $78.40 112 coins | 7.8% | 42 | 50.5 | 0.83× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 15.4% | $75.60 108 coins | 8.2% | 61 | 55.6 | 1.10× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $47.80 68.28 coins | 2.0% | 19 | 21.7 | 0.88× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 12.0% | $31.33 44.76 coins | 2.7% | 50 | 43.3 | 1.15× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $9.40 13.43 coins | 0.9% | 44 | 50.5 | 0.87× | | [Souvenir M249 \| Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-gator-mesh-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $6.38 9.11 coins | 0.7% | 60 | 54.1 | 1.11× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $156 222 coins $2,069 2,955 coins 13.29x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $161 229 coins $1,131 1,616 coins 7.04x 2026-11-04 19:40 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $161 229 coins $1,131 1,616 coins 7.04x 2026-11-04 19:40 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $161 229 coins $1,131 1,616 coins 7.04x 2026-11-04 19:10 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $156 222 coins $1,100 1,572 coins 7.07x 2026-11-10 13:11 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $156 222 coins $1,100 1,572 coins 7.07x 2026-11-10 12:51 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $156 222 coins $1,100 1,572 coins 7.07x 2026-11-09 12:53 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $156 222 coins $1,100 1,572 coins 7.07x 2026-11-09 12:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $156 222 coins $1,035 1,478 coins 6.65x 2026-11-10 13:16 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $161 229 coins $655 935 coins 4.08x 2026-11-06 23:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=botanical) [Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-gator-mesh-battle-scarred) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $156 222 coins $6.38 9.11 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:50 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-minimal-wear) Hidden $156 222 coins $89.60 128 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 00:50 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $156 222 coins $47.80 68.28 coins 0.31x 2026-11-10 13:18 UTC [M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) Hidden $156 222 coins $75.60 108 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 13:18 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) Hidden $156 222 coins $78.40 112 coins 0.50x 2026-11-10 13:18 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $156 222 coins $646 923 coins 4.15x 2026-11-10 13:18 UTC [M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $156 222 coins $75.60 108 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 13:18 UTC [M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) Hidden $156 222 coins $75.60 108 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 13:18 UTC [Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-gator-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $156 222 coins $6.38 9.11 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 13:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $156 222 coins $1,035 1,478 coins 6.65x 2026-11-10 13:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $156 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $158 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $161 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.8% classified 0.9% extraordinary 6.2% restricted 43.2% consumer 12.0% industrial 29.0% best hit $2,069 (13.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt