--- title: "Boulder case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Boulder ($206.84) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 93.00% over 156 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Boulder](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Boulder A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder?window=all) Price · $206.84 · 295 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $188.04 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.00% · 156 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 97 openings · below min 30 days · 93.00% ±26.70 156 openings since tracking started · 93.00% ±26.70 156 openings -0.5% 130.0% 260.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder?window=24h) | 6 | 123.67% ±136.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder?window=7d) | 97 | 85.60% ±33.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder) | 156 | 93.00% ±26.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/boulder?window=all) | 156 | 93.00% ±26.7 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $4,655 6,650 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,281 6,115 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $2,513 3,590 coins | 2.0% | 3 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 40 | $1,357 1,939 coins | 18.0% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $1,299 1,855 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 182 | $816 1,166 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 29 | $806 1,152 coins | 15.0% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $623 890 coins | 23.2% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.82× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 22 | $356 508 coins | 8.5% | 3 | 7.0 | 0.43× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $177 253 coins | 8.5% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 15.0% | $44.98 64.26 coins | 3.6% | 26 | 23.4 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 18.0% | $34.52 49.31 coins | 3.3% | 31 | 28.1 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $29.14 41.63 coins | 2.8% | 24 | 28.1 | 0.85× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 20.7% | $26.52 37.88 coins | 2.9% | 36 | 32.3 | 1.12× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $214 306 coins $2,534 3,620 coins 11.83x 2026-11-04 09:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $214 306 coins $2,534 3,620 coins 11.83x 2026-11-04 09:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $214 306 coins $2,534 3,620 coins 11.83x 2026-11-03 22:49 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $214 306 coins $1,378 1,968 coins 6.43x 2026-11-05 19:06 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $214 306 coins $1,378 1,968 coins 6.43x 2026-11-04 21:04 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $214 306 coins $1,378 1,968 coins 6.43x 2026-11-03 00:09 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $214 306 coins $1,378 1,968 coins 6.43x 2026-11-03 00:09 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $207 295 coins $1,357 1,939 coins 6.56x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [BaCraMo- csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BaCraMo-%20csgoroll.com) $207 295 coins $1,357 1,939 coins 6.56x 2026-11-10 09:38 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $207 295 coins $816 1,166 coins 3.95x 2026-11-10 09:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=boulder) [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $207 295 coins $1,357 1,939 coins 6.56x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $207 295 coins $34.52 49.31 coins 0.17x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $207 295 coins $44.98 64.26 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) Hidden $207 295 coins $26.52 37.88 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) Hidden $207 295 coins $26.52 37.88 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $207 295 coins $44.98 64.26 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) Hidden $207 295 coins $29.14 41.63 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 09:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $207 295 coins $623 890 coins 3.01x 2026-11-10 09:46 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $207 295 coins $177 253 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 09:46 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) [BaCraMo- csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BaCraMo-%20csgoroll.com) $207 295 coins $34.52 49.31 coins 0.17x 2026-11-10 09:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $207 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $206 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $214 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 46.3% restricted 15.0% mil spec 38.7% best hit $2,534 (11.83x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt