--- title: "Breakout case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Breakout ($108.19) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 62.65% over 81 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Breakout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Breakout A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout?window=all) Price · $108.19 · 155 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $98.35 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 62.65% · 81 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 75 openings · below min 30 days · 81 openings · below min since tracking started · 81 openings · below min 34.5% 65.5% 96.5% **Small sample.** 81 openings and 21.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout?window=24h) | 40 | 65.29% ±30.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout?window=7d) | 75 | 62.54% ±22.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout) | 81 | 62.65% ±21.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breakout?window=all) | 81 | 62.65% ±21.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 81 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,900 2,715 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $430 614 coins | 21.9% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $374 534 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $184 263 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $153 218 coins | 14.0% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $143 204 coins | 4.4% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $128 183 coins | 10.4% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $125 178 coins | 6.3% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $79.10 113 coins | 6.4% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $75.60 108 coins | 11.5% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.82× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $67.35 96.22 coins | 3.4% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $58.89 84.13 coins | 4.2% | 9 | 5.7 | 1.59× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 10.0% | $39.37 56.24 coins | 4.0% | 13 | 8.1 | 1.60× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 23.4% | $32.73 46.75 coins | 7.8% | 24 | 19.0 | 1.27× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=breakout) [AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) Hidden $108 155 coins $128 183 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $108 155 coins $32.73 46.75 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) Hidden $108 155 coins $153 218 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $108 155 coins $32.73 46.75 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $108 155 coins $58.89 84.13 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $108 155 coins $39.37 56.24 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $108 155 coins $67.35 96.22 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $108 155 coins $39.37 56.24 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $108 155 coins $32.73 46.75 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $108 155 coins $39.37 56.24 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $108 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $108 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $109 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% restricted 28.4% covert 71.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt