--- title: "Breathe case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Breathe ($260.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 25 items with odds, observed 143.65% over 200 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Breathe](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Breathe A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe?window=all) Price · $260.09 · 372 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $236.44 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 143.65% · 200 openings, odds method Variance · 14.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 143.65% ±53.31 200 openings 30 days · 143.65% ±53.31 200 openings since tracking started · 143.65% ±53.31 200 openings -0.5% 223.3% 447.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe?window=24h) | 6 | 137.08% ±309.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe?window=7d) | 200 | 143.65% ±53.3 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe) | 200 | 143.65% ±53.3 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/breathe?window=all) | 200 | 143.65% ±53.3 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 200 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $38K 54,245 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 2,000 | $25K 35,730 coins | 5.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $24.5K 35,000 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $7,297 10,425 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,028 10,040 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,269 8,955 coins | 1.3% | 2 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $5,156 7,365 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $3,923 5,605 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 12.6% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,393 1,990 coins | 5.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 170 | $1,295 1,850 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 8.7% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $1,050 1,500 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 182 | $1,037 1,482 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · gold · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $986 1,408 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $788 1,125 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) | 1 in 17 | $666 951 coins | 16.9% | 11 | 12.0 | 0.92× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $659 942 coins | 3.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 87 | $651 930 coins | 3.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 125 | $475 678 coins | 1.6% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $436 623 coins | 4.1% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 85 | 80.0 | 1.06× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 72 | 80.0 | 0.90× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) Hidden $260 372 coins $25K 35,730 coins 96.16x 2026-11-08 21:35 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) Hidden $263 376 coins $6,465 9,235 coins 24.54x 2026-11-06 02:03 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) Hidden $260 372 coins $6,269 8,955 coins 24.10x 2026-11-08 21:29 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $260 372 coins $5,156 7,365 coins 19.82x 2026-11-08 21:29 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $260 372 coins $1,988 2,840 coins 7.64x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $263 376 coins $1,393 1,990 coins 5.29x 2026-11-06 17:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) [Chris Handsome](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chris%20Handsome) $263 376 coins $1,393 1,990 coins 5.29x 2026-11-05 22:57 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $263 376 coins $1,393 1,990 coins 5.29x 2026-11-04 22:21 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $260 372 coins $1,295 1,850 coins 4.98x 2026-11-08 21:26 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $260 372 coins $1,295 1,850 coins 4.98x 2026-11-08 21:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=breathe) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $260 372 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) Hidden $260 372 coins $666 951 coins 2.56x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $260 372 coins $1,037 1,482 coins 3.99x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $260 372 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $260 372 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $260 372 coins $436 623 coins 1.68x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $260 372 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $260 372 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $260 372 coins $1,050 1,500 coins 4.04x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $260 372 coins $1,988 2,840 coins 7.64x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $260 | 90.91% | 25 | | 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $263 | 90.91% | 25 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $263 | 90.91% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% base 0.1% legendary 2.0% contraband 0.5% covert 7.1% extraordinary 0.7% epic 0.1% classified 1.5% restricted 1.8% gold 0.3% high 6.0% consumer 80.0% best hit $25K (96.16x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt