--- title: "Brutal case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Brutal ($39.13) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.63% over 828 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Brutal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Brutal A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal?window=all) Price · $39.13 · 55.9 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $35.57 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.63% · 828 openings, odds method Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 71 openings · below min 7 days · 90.48% ±16.43 804 openings 30 days · 89.63% ±16.19 828 openings since tracking started · 89.63% ±16.19 828 openings 54.5% 110.3% 166.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal?window=24h) | 71 | 110.27% ±55.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal?window=7d) | 804 | 90.48% ±16.4 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal) | 828 | 89.63% ±16.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/brutal?window=all) | 828 | 89.63% ±16.2 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 828 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,096 1,566 coins | 6.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $623 890 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $532 760 coins | 22.4% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.97× | | [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $345 493 coins | 4.9% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $118 169 coins | 16.6% | 45 | 41.4 | 1.09× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $111 158 coins | 9.3% | 20 | 24.8 | 0.81× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $47.59 67.98 coins | 20.1% | 121 | 124.2 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 19.5% | $22.17 31.67 coins | 12.2% | 164 | 161.5 | 1.02× | | [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 25.0% | $2.27 3.24 coins | 1.6% | 194 | 207.0 | 0.94× | | [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) | 30.0% | $1.81 2.58 coins | 1.5% | 264 | 248.4 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [🌌Satoru Gojo🌌](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%8C%8CSatoru%20Gojo%F0%9F%8C%8C) $39.95 57.07 coins $1,112 1,588 coins 27.83x 2026-11-07 00:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $39.12 55.89 coins $1,096 1,566 coins 28.02x 2026-11-09 02:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.98 57.11 coins $672 960 coins 16.81x 2026-11-08 14:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $623 890 coins 15.92x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.98 57.11 coins $540 771 coins 13.50x 2026-11-08 15:30 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.98 57.11 coins $540 771 coins 13.50x 2026-11-08 07:18 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [I lost my MBA tuition fee](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20lost%20my%20MBA%20tuition%20fee) $39.95 57.07 coins $540 771 coins 13.51x 2026-11-07 16:54 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [🌌Satoru Gojo🌌](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%8C%8CSatoru%20Gojo%F0%9F%8C%8C) $39.95 57.07 coins $540 771 coins 13.51x 2026-11-07 01:27 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.95 57.07 coins $540 771 coins 13.51x 2026-11-06 23:21 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.95 57.07 coins $540 771 coins 13.51x 2026-11-05 14:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=brutal) [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $1.81 2.58 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) [Lolkillall☆JZE☆](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lolkillall%E2%98%86JZE%E2%98%86) $39.13 55.9 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $118 169 coins 3.02x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC [Galil AR | Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $47.59 67.98 coins 1.22x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 18:23 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $1.81 2.58 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 18:23 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 18:23 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.13 55.9 coins $22.17 31.67 coins 0.57x 2026-11-10 18:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $39.13 | 90.90% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $39.12 | 90.90% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.53 | 90.90% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $39.98 | 90.92% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $39.95 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.93 | 90.92% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.5% restricted 34.5% #8847ff 25.0% industrial 30.0% best hit $1,112 (27.83x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt