--- title: "Bubbles case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bubbles ($81.16) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 88.24% over 642 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Bubbles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Bubbles A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles?window=all) Price · $81.16 · 116 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $73.78 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.24% · 642 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 87.62% ±7.91 520 openings 30 days · 88.24% ±7.11 642 openings since tracking started · 88.24% ±7.11 642 openings 77.5% 107.7% 138.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles?window=24h) | 38 | 107.85% ±29.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles?window=7d) | 520 | 87.62% ±7.91 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles) | 642 | 88.24% ±7.11 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bubbles?window=all) | 642 | 88.24% ±7.11 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 643 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $755 1,079 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $385 550 coins | 2.6% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.56× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $276 394 coins | 3.7% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.62× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $263 375 coins | 17.8% | 27 | 32.1 | 0.84× | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $174 249 coins | 7.1% | 21 | 19.3 | 1.09× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $170 243 coins | 18.4% | 45 | 51.4 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $91.70 131 coins | 9.9% | 55 | 51.4 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $90.30 129 coins | 11.0% | 61 | 57.9 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 14 | $67.30 96.14 coins | 6.4% | 55 | 45.0 | 1.22× | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $59.65 85.22 coins | 4.0% | 31 | 32.1 | 0.96× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $58.95 84.21 coins | 4.0% | 32 | 32.1 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 10.0% | $39.24 56.06 coins | 5.3% | 62 | 64.3 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-factory-new) | 15.0% | $29.66 42.37 coins | 6.0% | 98 | 96.5 | 1.02× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 23.4% | $8.13 11.61 coins | 2.6% | 147 | 150.5 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bubbles) [StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-factory-new) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $81.16 116 coins $29.66 42.37 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) Hidden $81.16 116 coins $58.95 84.21 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 116 coins $263 375 coins 3.23x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 116 coins $29.66 42.37 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $81.16 116 coins $263 375 coins 3.23x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 116 coins $263 375 coins 3.23x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) Hidden $81.16 116 coins $58.95 84.21 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC [P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) [Tyrone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tyrone) $81.16 116 coins $8.13 11.61 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) Hidden $81.16 116 coins $90.30 129 coins 1.11x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [Jocke.1337(eliiite)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jocke.1337%28eliiite%29) $81.16 116 coins $67.30 96.14 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $81.16 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $81.82 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $80.92 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 33.1% restricted 9.5% epic 1.0% classified 36.4% extraordinary 5.0% rare 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt