--- title: "Budget 10% Knife case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Budget 10% Knife ($5.79) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 7 items with odds, observed 91.23% over 21.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife rendered: 2026-11-12T00:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Budget 10% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Budget 10% Knife A case on CSGORoll (hot, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife?window=all) Price · $5.79 · 8.27 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $5.26 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.23% · 21.5K openings, odds method Variance · 6.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.39% ±11.33 1,931 openings 7 days · 92.19% ±3.76 17.4K openings 30 days · 91.23% ±3.38 21.5K openings since tracking started · 91.23% ±3.38 21.5K openings 77.5% 89.5% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife?window=24h) | 1,931 | 89.39% ±11.3 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife?window=7d) | 17.4K | 92.19% ±3.76 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife) | 21.5K | 91.23% ±3.38 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-10percent-knife?window=all) | 21.5K | 91.23% ±3.38 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,068 1,526 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $35.56 50.8 coins | 67.5% | 2,229 | 2154.1 | 1.03× | | [M249 \| Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-field-tested) | 18.0% | $2.42 3.45 coins | 8.3% | 3,870 | 3881.3 | 1.00× | | [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) | 18.0% | $2.24 3.2 coins | 7.7% | 3,827 | 3881.3 | 0.99× | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) | 18.0% | $2.06 2.94 coins | 7.0% | 3,896 | 3881.3 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-field-tested) | 18.0% | $1.96 2.8 coins | 6.7% | 3,938 | 3881.3 | 1.01× | | [UMP-45 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.24 0.34 coins | 0.8% | 3,803 | 3881.3 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [FellePellePro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FellePellePro) $6.14 8.77 coins $1,086 1,551 coins 176.9x 2026-11-06 19:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=budget-10percent-knife) [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) [RustyGamblingLord](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/RustyGamblingLord) $5.77 8.25 coins $2.06 2.94 coins 0.36x 2026-11-12 00:20 UTC [M249 | Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $5.77 8.25 coins $2.42 3.45 coins 0.42x 2026-11-12 00:20 UTC [M249 | Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $5.77 8.25 coins $2.42 3.45 coins 0.42x 2026-11-12 00:20 UTC [MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) Hidden $5.77 8.25 coins $2.24 3.2 coins 0.39x 2026-11-12 00:20 UTC [M249 | Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $5.77 8.25 coins $2.42 3.45 coins 0.42x 2026-11-12 00:20 UTC [MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) Hidden $5.77 8.25 coins $2.24 3.2 coins 0.39x 2026-11-12 00:20 UTC [UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $5.77 8.25 coins $0.24 0.34 coins 0.04x 2026-11-12 00:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Surfwood (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-field-tested) [Sigaard The king](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sigaard%20The%20king) $5.77 8.25 coins $1.90 2.72 coins 0.33x 2026-11-12 00:17 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) Hidden $5.77 8.25 coins $2.06 2.94 coins 0.36x 2026-11-12 00:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Surfwood (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-field-tested) Hidden $5.77 8.25 coins $1.90 2.72 coins 0.33x 2026-11-12 00:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.79 | 90.92% | 7 | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $5.80 | 90.92% | 7 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $5.80 | 90.94% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.80 | 90.87% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.14 | 90.86% | 7 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $6.14 | 90.89% | 7 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $6.13 | 90.95% | 7 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.15 | 90.88% | 7 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $6.19 | 90.90% | 7 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.24 | 90.93% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $1,086 (176.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt