--- title: "Budget Knives case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Budget Knives ($89.04) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 94.28% over 76 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives rendered: 2026-11-11T18:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Budget Knives](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Budget Knives A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives?window=all) Price · $89.04 · 127 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $80.95 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.28% · 76 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 68 openings · below min 30 days · 76 openings · below min since tracking started · 76 openings · below min 70.5% 99.0% 127.5% **Small sample.** 76 openings and 21.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives?window=24h) | 48 | 99.86% ±26.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives?window=7d) | 68 | 94.04% ±22.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives) | 76 | 94.28% ±21.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-knives?window=all) | 76 | 94.28% ±21.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,132 3,045 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,438 2,054 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $918 1,312 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $816 1,166 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $624 891 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $536 766 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $382 545 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $291 415 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $285 407 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $268 383 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $262 374 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 125 | $224 320 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $157 224 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $156 223 coins | 15.4% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.32× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $139 199 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 40 | $134 192 coins | 4.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $127 181 coins | 14.1% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.17× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $96.60 138 coins | 6.0% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $46.47 66.38 coins | 5.5% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 15.8% | $46.07 65.82 coins | 9.0% | 11 | 12.0 | 0.92× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 11.0% | $38.73 55.33 coins | 5.3% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.96× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $35.25 50.35 coins | 13.1% | 24 | 22.8 | 1.05× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=budget-knives) [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $89.04 127 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $89.04 127 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $89.04 127 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $89.04 127 coins $156 223 coins 1.75x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $89.04 127 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) Hidden $89.04 127 coins $127 181 coins 1.42x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $89.04 127 coins $46.07 65.82 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $89.04 127 coins $96.60 138 coins 1.08x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $89.04 127 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $89.04 127 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $89.04 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $89.81 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $90.70 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt