---
title: "Budget Loadout case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Budget Loadout ($7.39) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 39 items with odds, observed 90.64% over 5,303 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Budget Loadout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Budget Loadout

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout?window=all)

Price · $7.39 · 10.55 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $6.71 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.64% · 5,303 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.66% ±5.65 628 openings

7 days · 90.30% ±2.14 4,413 openings

30 days · 90.64% ±1.95 5,303 openings

since tracking started · 90.64% ±1.95 5,303 openings

82.5% 88.8% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout?window=24h) | 628 | 88.66% ±5.65 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout?window=7d) | 4,413 | 90.30% ±2.14 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout) | 5,303 | 90.64% ±1.95 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/budget-loadout?window=all) | 5,303 | 90.64% ±1.95 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,315 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $135 193 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $69.77 99.67 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $59.27 84.67 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $44.25 63.22 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $26.89 38.42 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $24.22 34.6 coins | 10.8% | 146 | 159.4 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $21.01 30.01 coins | 4.7% | 88 | 79.7 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $13.36 19.09 coins | 6.0% | 146 | 159.4 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $12.29 17.56 coins | 3.1% | 96 | 90.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $12.27 17.53 coins | 3.7% | 109 | 106.3 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $11.25 16.07 coins | 5.0% | 152 | 159.4 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $11.06 15.8 coins | 4.9% | 169 | 159.4 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $11.04 15.77 coins | 4.9% | 145 | 159.4 | 0.91× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $11.00 15.71 coins | 4.9% | 172 | 159.4 | 1.08× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $9.80 14 coins | 4.4% | 156 | 159.4 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $9.33 13.33 coins | 2.5% | 86 | 95.7 | 0.90× |
| [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $9.12 13.03 coins | 4.1% | 174 | 159.4 | 1.09× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $9.00 12.85 coins | 4.0% | 126 | 159.4 | 0.79× |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $8.74 12.48 coins | 3.9% | 161 | 159.4 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.61 9.45 coins | 3.0% | 155 | 159.4 | 0.97× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $5.73 8.19 coins | 2.6% | 186 | 159.4 | 1.17× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.53 7.9 coins | 2.5% | 174 | 159.4 | 1.09× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.52 7.88 coins | 2.5% | 163 | 159.4 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.45 6.36 coins | 1.3% | 105 | 106.3 | 0.99× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.35 6.21 coins | 1.9% | 165 | 159.4 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $4.14 5.91 coins | 1.2% | 111 | 106.3 | 1.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.12 5.89 coins | 1.8% | 174 | 159.4 | 1.09× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.95 5.64 coins | 1.8% | 163 | 159.4 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $3.89 5.55 coins | 2.3% | 209 | 212.6 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.18 4.55 coins | 1.4% | 152 | 159.4 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.05 4.36 coins | 2.7% | 310 | 315.7 | 0.98× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.51 3.58 coins | 1.5% | 219 | 212.6 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.33 3.33 coins | 1.0% | 173 | 159.4 | 1.08× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.27 3.24 coins | 1.0% | 148 | 159.4 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.22 3.17 coins | 1.0% | 160 | 159.4 | 1.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.94 2.77 coins | 0.9% | 150 | 159.4 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.83 2.62 coins | 0.8% | 153 | 159.4 | 0.96× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.72 2.45 coins | 0.8% | 149 | 159.4 | 0.93× |
| [Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.13 1.62 coins | 0.5% | 165 | 159.4 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=budget-loadout)

[G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) Hidden $7.39 10.55 coins $8.74 12.48 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) Hidden $7.39 10.55 coins $11.25 16.07 coins 1.52x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.39 10.55 coins $2.22 3.17 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-well-worn) Hidden $7.39 10.55 coins $5.73 8.19 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) Hidden $7.39 10.55 coins $24.22 34.6 coins 3.28x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-field-tested) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $7.39 10.55 coins $9.12 13.03 coins 1.24x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) Hidden $7.39 10.55 coins $5.52 7.88 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $7.39 10.55 coins $21.01 30.01 coins 2.84x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) Hidden $7.39 10.55 coins $8.74 12.48 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) Hidden $7.39 10.55 coins $9.80 14 coins 1.33x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $7.39 | 90.90% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $7.39 | 90.91% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.39 | 90.95% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $7.40 | 90.90% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.37 | 90.89% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.31 | 90.90% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $7.31 | 90.91% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $7.31 | 90.91% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $7.31 | 90.88% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $7.34 | 90.90% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.33 | 90.95% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $7.33 | 90.93% | 39 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.41 | 90.87% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% classified 32.7% restricted 53.2% mil spec 6.0% pink 3.0% industrial 3.0% Mythical 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt