--- title: "Bulb case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bulb ($126.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 80.06% over 1,295 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Bulb](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Bulb A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb?window=all) Price · $126.54 · 181 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $115.04 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.06% · 1,295 openings, odds method Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.73% ±40.42 173 openings 7 days · 83.03% ±16.87 1,003 openings 30 days · 80.06% ±14.87 1,295 openings since tracking started · 80.06% ±14.87 1,295 openings 49.5% 90.8% 132.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb?window=24h) | 173 | 90.73% ±40.4 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb?window=7d) | 1,003 | 83.03% ±16.9 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb) | 1,295 | 80.06% ±14.9 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bulb?window=all) | 1,295 | 80.06% ±14.9 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,295 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $2,667 3,810 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 250 | $1,606 2,294 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $1,551 2,216 coins | 3.4% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,474 2,105 coins | 3.2% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,436 2,052 coins | 3.7% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,136 1,623 coins | 4.9% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 4.7% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,008 1,440 coins | 3.5% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $935 1,336 coins | 4.1% | 12 | 6.5 | 1.85× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $922 1,317 coins | 8.0% | 6 | 13.0 | 0.46× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $906 1,295 coins | 3.9% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $878 1,254 coins | 3.8% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333 | $636 909 coins | 1.7% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $569 813 coins | 2.5% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $456 651 coins | 4.0% | 12 | 13.0 | 0.93× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 29 | $412 589 coins | 12.2% | 41 | 44.0 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $398 568 coins | 6.9% | 20 | 25.9 | 0.77× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $232 332 coins | 2.0% | 16 | 13.0 | 1.24× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $230 329 coins | 6.8% | 44 | 44.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $223 318 coins | 1.9% | 12 | 13.0 | 0.93× | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $178 254 coins | 3.1% | 34 | 25.9 | 1.31× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 518 | 518.0 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 525 | 518.0 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $127 182 coins $2,695 3,850 coins 21.20x 2026-11-08 08:07 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [dr cheryll erwin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dr%20cheryll%20erwin) $127 182 coins $2,695 3,850 coins 21.20x 2026-11-07 08:29 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $127 182 coins $1,632 2,331 coins 12.83x 2026-11-08 03:08 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $127 182 coins $1,632 2,331 coins 12.83x 2026-11-06 19:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [hellsten05](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hellsten05) $127 182 coins $1,632 2,331 coins 12.83x 2026-11-03 22:01 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $127 181 coins $1,551 2,216 coins 12.26x 2026-11-09 21:47 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $127 181 coins $1,551 2,216 coins 12.26x 2026-11-09 15:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $127 182 coins $1,475 2,107 coins 11.60x 2026-11-05 15:40 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $127 182 coins $1,475 2,107 coins 11.60x 2026-11-04 22:15 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $127 181 coins $1,474 2,105 coins 11.64x 2026-11-09 09:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bulb) [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $127 181 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $127 | 90.91% | 24 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $127 | 90.91% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.9% legendary 0.7% restricted 3.4% extraordinary 1.0% consumer 80.0% best hit $2,695 (21.20x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt