--- title: "Bullseye case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bullseye ($4.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.20% over 96.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye rendered: 2026-11-11T18:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Bullseye](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Bullseye A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye?window=all) Price · $4.82 · 6.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $4.38 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.20% · 96.7K openings, odds method Variance · 144.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 313 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.38% ±21.36 12.1K openings 7 days · 90.47% ±8.29 80.8K openings 30 days · 88.20% ±7.58 96.7K openings since tracking started · 88.20% ±7.58 96.7K openings 59.5% 81.5% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye?window=24h) | 12.1K | 81.38% ±21.4 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye?window=7d) | 80.8K | 90.47% ±8.29 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye) | 96.7K | 88.20% ±7.58 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bullseye?window=all) | 96.7K | 88.20% ±7.58 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,895 4,135 coins | 6.6% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.83× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 6,667 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 7.2% | 13 | 14.5 | 0.89× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,047 1,496 coins | 7.2% | 23 | 29.1 | 0.79× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,016 1,452 coins | 5.8% | 25 | 24.2 | 1.03× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $937 1,339 coins | 4.3% | 24 | 19.4 | 1.24× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $566 808 coins | 6.5% | 53 | 48.4 | 1.09× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $456 651 coins | 10.4% | 110 | 96.8 | 1.14× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $419 599 coins | 6.7% | 63 | 67.8 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $398 568 coins | 9.1% | 108 | 96.8 | 1.12× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $337 482 coins | 7.7% | 88 | 96.8 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $328 469 coins | 6.0% | 68 | 77.5 | 0.88× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $318 454 coins | 7.3% | 103 | 96.8 | 1.06× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $267 382 coins | 6.1% | 82 | 96.8 | 0.85× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $232 332 coins | 5.3% | 81 | 96.8 | 0.84× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $160 228 coins | 3.6% | 79 | 96.8 | 0.82× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 43,302 | 43577.1 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 54.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 52,608 | 52292.5 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins $2,895 4,135 coins 601.0x 2026-11-11 00:20 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins $2,895 4,135 coins 601.0x 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins $2,895 4,135 coins 601.0x 2026-11-09 23:39 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) [leffenator](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/leffenator) $4.82 6.88 coins $2,895 4,135 coins 601.0x 2026-11-09 16:04 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins $2,895 4,135 coins 601.0x 2026-11-09 00:03 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $4.84 6.92 coins $2,832 4,045 coins 584.5x 2026-11-06 22:12 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $4.84 6.92 coins $2,832 4,045 coins 584.5x 2026-11-06 12:54 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $4.84 6.92 coins $2,832 4,045 coins 584.5x 2026-11-05 08:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $4.84 6.92 coins $2,832 4,045 coins 584.5x 2026-11-04 19:25 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $4.84 6.92 coins $2,170 3,100 coins 448.0x 2026-11-08 02:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bullseye) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Glufi\_s CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Glufi_s%20CS2SKINS.GIFT) $4.82 6.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Slippy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Slippy) $4.82 6.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.82 6.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.82 | 90.89% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.84 | 90.90% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.7% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 0.1% consumer 99.0% best hit $2,895 (601.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt