---
title: "Buoyancy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Buoyancy ($13.76) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 14 items with odds, observed 90.89% over 7,645 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Buoyancy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Buoyancy

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy?window=all)

Price · $13.76 · 19.66 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $12.51 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.89% · 7,645 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 102.47% ±16.51 688 openings

7 days · 91.08% ±5.58 6,028 openings

30 days · 90.89% ±4.95 7,645 openings

since tracking started · 90.89% ±4.95 7,645 openings

85.0% 102.3% 119.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy?window=24h) | 688 | 102.47% ±16.5 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy?window=7d) | 6,028 | 91.08% ±5.58 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy) | 7,645 | 90.89% ±4.95 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/buoyancy?window=all) | 7,645 | 90.89% ±4.95 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,649 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 20,000 | $444 634 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $117 167 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $116 166 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) | 10.0% | $102 146 coins | 81.7% | 770 | 764.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $70.70 101 coins | 0.6% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.65× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $13.98 19.97 coins | 3.4% | 221 | 229.5 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $10.65 15.21 coins | 2.6% | 242 | 229.5 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.51 10.73 coins | 3.0% | 375 | 382.5 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $3.70 5.29 coins | 3.0% | 798 | 764.9 | 1.04× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 10.8% | $2.08 2.97 coins | 1.8% | 815 | 829.2 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.94 2.77 coins | 1.6% | 763 | 764.9 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.09 1.55 coins | 1.3% | 1,130 | 1147.3 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.43 0.61 coins | 0.5% | 1,150 | 1147.3 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,378 | 1376.8 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=buoyancy)

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-battle-scarred) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $13.76 19.66 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) Hidden $13.76 19.66 coins $102 146 coins 7.43x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.76 19.66 coins $1.94 2.77 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.76 19.66 coins $1.94 2.77 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.76 19.66 coins $3.70 5.29 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $13.76 19.66 coins $102 146 coins 7.43x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.76 19.66 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) Hidden $13.76 19.66 coins $102 146 coins 7.43x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $13.76 19.66 coins $102 146 coins 7.43x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $13.76 19.66 coins $0.43 0.61 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $13.76 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.78 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $13.81 | 90.89% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $13.96 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $13.94 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.94 | 90.93% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.96 | 90.93% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.1% classified 13.1% mil spec 3.0% consumer 5.0% restricted 35.8% industrial 33.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt