--- title: "Burnout case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Burnout ($3.56) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.85% from 19 items with odds, observed 90.06% over 50.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Burnout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Burnout A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout?window=all) Price · $3.56 · 5.09 coins Advertised RTP · 90.85% · EV $3.24 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.06% · 50.9K openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.66% ±4.19 3,476 openings 7 days · 90.25% ±1.35 40.3K openings 30 days · 90.06% ±1.21 50.9K openings since tracking started · 90.06% ±1.21 50.9K openings 84.0% 88.8% 93.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout?window=24h) | 3,476 | 88.66% ±4.19 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout?window=7d) | 40.3K | 90.25% ±1.35 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout) | 50.9K | 90.06% ±1.21 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/burnout?window=all) | 50.9K | 90.06% ±1.21 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $133 190 coins | 1.2% | 10 | 15.3 | 0.65× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $116 166 coins | 1.8% | 22 | 25.5 | 0.86× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $62.86 89.8 coins | 0.2% | 10 | 5.1 | 1.96× | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $26.83 38.33 coins | 1.2% | 69 | 76.4 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $22.37 31.95 coins | 1.8% | 145 | 132.4 | 1.09× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $21.54 30.77 coins | 6.7% | 468 | 509.3 | 0.92× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $10.79 15.42 coins | 3.3% | 507 | 509.3 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $9.91 14.15 coins | 3.1% | 553 | 509.3 | 1.09× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $8.76 12.52 coins | 2.7% | 468 | 509.3 | 0.92× | | [P250 \| Facets (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $8.30 11.85 coins | 2.6% | 507 | 509.3 | 1.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $7.74 11.06 coins | 2.4% | 442 | 509.3 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $6.40 9.14 coins | 2.0% | 551 | 509.3 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6.30 9 coins | 1.9% | 519 | 509.3 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $6.08 8.69 coins | 3.8% | 1,032 | 1018.6 | 1.01× | | [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $5.73 8.19 coins | 3.5% | 1,024 | 1018.6 | 1.01× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.86 5.52 coins | 3.6% | 1,519 | 1527.9 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.51 5.01 coins | 3.8% | 1,745 | 1782.6 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Candy Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-candy-buttery-holo) | 1 in 100 | $3.14 4.49 coins | 1.0% | 527 | 509.3 | 1.03× | | [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 80.0% | $2.16 3.09 coins | 53.5% | 40,813 | 40744.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=burnout) [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $3.56 5.09 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $3.56 5.09 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) [Hoen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hoen) $3.56 5.09 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $3.56 5.09 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $3.56 5.09 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) [Hoen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hoen) $3.56 5.09 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $3.56 5.09 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Sticker | Candy Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-candy-buttery-holo) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $3.56 5.09 coins $3.14 4.49 coins 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $3.56 5.09 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $3.56 5.09 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.56 | 90.85% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.18 | 90.98% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $3.18 | 91.00% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.20 | 90.99% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% mil spec 84.2% classified 4.3% restricted 4.5% consumer 1.0% industrial 5.0% remarkable 1.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.85 on average: an expected loss of $9.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt