--- title: "Business case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Business ($116.19) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 95.96% over 936 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Business](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Business A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business?window=all) Price · $116.19 · 166 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $105.62 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.96% · 936 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.58% ±25.80 127 openings 7 days · 91.81% ±11.08 686 openings 30 days · 95.96% ±9.48 936 openings since tracking started · 95.96% ±9.48 936 openings 68.0% 94.5% 121.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business?window=24h) | 127 | 94.58% ±25.8 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business?window=7d) | 686 | 91.81% ±11.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business) | 936 | 95.96% ±9.48 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/business?window=all) | 936 | 95.96% ±9.48 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 936 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,028 10,040 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,033 1,475 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,008 1,440 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $983 1,404 coins | 10.2% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $738 1,054 coins | 4.9% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.53× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 71 | $679 970 coins | 9.0% | 18 | 13.1 | 1.37× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $511 730 coins | 2.4% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $284 406 coins | 21.5% | 77 | 74.9 | 1.03× | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $258 369 coins | 6.1% | 23 | 23.4 | 0.98× | | [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $160 229 coins | 13.7% | 83 | 84.2 | 0.99× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $124 177 coins | 7.0% | 53 | 56.2 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 15.7% | $77.00 110 coins | 11.4% | 141 | 146.9 | 0.96× | | [★ Gut Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife) | 1 in 17 | $54.89 78.42 coins | 3.1% | 66 | 56.2 | 1.18× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 12.0% | $27.10 38.71 coins | 3.1% | 109 | 112.3 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 20.0% | $23.00 32.86 coins | 4.4% | 189 | 187.2 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $9.34 13.34 coins | 1.5% | 151 | 159.1 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $116 165 coins $1,093 1,561 coins 9.45x 2026-11-07 01:45 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $116 165 coins $990 1,415 coins 8.56x 2026-11-08 02:45 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) [User#914](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23914) $116 165 coins $990 1,415 coins 8.56x 2026-11-07 23:42 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $116 165 coins $990 1,415 coins 8.56x 2026-11-07 19:57 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $116 165 coins $990 1,415 coins 8.56x 2026-11-04 10:04 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $116 165 coins $990 1,415 coins 8.56x 2026-11-03 21:32 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) [Philiacos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Philiacos) $116 165 coins $990 1,415 coins 8.56x 2026-11-03 17:45 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $116 165 coins $990 1,415 coins 8.56x 2026-11-03 07:47 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $116 165 coins $990 1,415 coins 8.56x 2026-11-03 04:36 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) Hidden $116 166 coins $983 1,404 coins 8.46x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=business) [★ Gut Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife) Hidden $116 166 coins $54.89 78.42 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-field-tested) Hidden $116 166 coins $160 229 coins 1.38x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-field-tested) Hidden $116 166 coins $160 229 coins 1.38x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $116 166 coins $23.00 32.86 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) Hidden $116 166 coins $23.00 32.86 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $116 166 coins $27.10 38.71 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $116 166 coins $124 177 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $116 166 coins $124 177 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) Hidden $116 166 coins $9.34 13.34 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $116 166 coins $27.10 38.71 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $116 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $116 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $116 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 32.3% legendary 0.6% classified 1.1% industrial 8.0% restricted 38.0% mil spec 20.0% best hit $1,093 (9.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt