--- title: "Butchered case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Butchered ($26.02) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 94.33% over 489 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered rendered: 2026-11-11T15:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Butchered](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Butchered A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered?window=all) Price · $26.02 · 37.17 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $23.65 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.33% · 489 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 92.21% ±10.56 407 openings 30 days · 94.33% ±9.63 489 openings since tracking started · 94.33% ±9.63 489 openings 34.0% 73.5% 113.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered?window=24h) | 32 | 73.50% ±38.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered?window=7d) | 407 | 92.21% ±10.6 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered) | 489 | 94.33% ±9.63 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/butchered?window=all) | 489 | 94.33% ±9.63 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 489 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,068 1,526 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $323 461 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $188 268 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $184 263 coins | 3.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $129 184 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $118 169 coins | 12.5% | 16 | 12.2 | 1.31× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $84.70 121 coins | 3.9% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.12× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $74.90 107 coins | 4.4% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.46× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $48.33 69.05 coins | 12.3% | 35 | 29.3 | 1.19× | | [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 17.0% | $30.60 43.72 coins | 22.0% | 90 | 83.1 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $26.59 37.98 coins | 6.7% | 27 | 29.3 | 0.92× | | [Galil AR \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $17.85 25.5 coins | 6.8% | 34 | 44.0 | 0.77× | | [P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-well-worn) | 15.7% | $14.21 20.3 coins | 9.4% | 70 | 76.7 | 0.91× | | [Lt. Commander Ricksaw \| NSWC SEAL agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/lt-commander-ricksaw-nswc-seal) | 1 in 13 | $12.57 17.95 coins | 4.2% | 50 | 39.1 | 1.28× | | [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) | 12.0% | $10.60 15.14 coins | 5.4% | 44 | 58.7 | 0.75× | | [AUG \| Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.60 5.14 coins | 3.0% | 103 | 97.8 | 1.05× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=butchered) [P250 | Mehndi (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-well-worn) Hidden $26.02 37.17 coins $14.21 20.3 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) Hidden $26.02 37.17 coins $3.60 5.14 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC [Lt. Commander Ricksaw | NSWC SEAL agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/lt-commander-ricksaw-nswc-seal) Hidden $26.02 37.17 coins $12.57 17.95 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC [Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $26.02 37.17 coins $30.60 43.72 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $26.02 37.17 coins $3.60 5.14 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [P250 | Mehndi (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-well-worn) Hidden $26.02 37.17 coins $14.21 20.3 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $26.02 37.17 coins $30.60 43.72 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [P250 | Mehndi (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-well-worn) Hidden $26.02 37.17 coins $14.21 20.3 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) [TeeKay](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TeeKay) $26.02 37.17 coins $3.60 5.14 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 07:57 UTC [Lt. Commander Ricksaw | NSWC SEAL agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/lt-commander-ricksaw-nswc-seal) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $26.02 37.17 coins $12.57 17.95 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 07:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $26.02 | 90.90% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.05 | 90.90% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.05 | 90.90% | 16 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $26.94 | 90.91% | 16 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $27.04 | 90.92% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.03 | 90.90% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.8% classified 24.2% restricted 29.0% consumer 29.0% red 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt