---
title: "Cactus case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cactus ($72.34) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 73.03% over 29 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cactus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cactus

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus?window=all)

Price · $72.34 · 103 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $65.76 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.03% · 29 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 43.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 19 openings · below min

30 days · 29 openings · below min

since tracking started · 29 openings · below min

-0.5% 116.0% 232.5%

**Small sample.** 29 openings and 10.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus?window=24h) | 4 | 88.88% ±143.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus?window=7d) | 19 | 75.90% ±65.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus) | 29 | 73.03% ±53.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cactus?window=all) | 29 | 73.03% ±53.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 500 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 333 | $533 762 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $348 497 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $124 177 coins | 15.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $116 166 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $85.40 122 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $79.10 113 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 11.0% | $67.04 95.77 coins | 11.2% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.57× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 16.0% | $60.40 86.28 coins | 14.7% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.43× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $53.17 75.95 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $52.27 74.67 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $52.24 74.63 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 24.4% | $46.82 66.88 coins | 17.4% | 9 | 7.1 | 1.27× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $26.89 38.42 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.72× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 14.0% | $26.08 37.25 coins | 5.6% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.72× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cactus)

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $72.34 103 coins $60.40 86.28 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $72.34 103 coins $26.08 37.25 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

[Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.34 103 coins $124 177 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-well-worn) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $72.34 103 coins $46.82 66.88 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $72.34 103 coins $26.08 37.25 coins 0.36x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC

[Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.34 103 coins $124 177 coins 1.71x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) [svanteaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/svanteaa) $72.34 103 coins $67.04 95.77 coins 0.93x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $72.34 103 coins $26.08 37.25 coins 0.36x 2026-11-10 03:01 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) Hidden $72.34 103 coins $26.89 38.42 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 03:01 UTC

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-well-worn) Hidden $72.34 103 coins $46.82 66.88 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 03:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.34 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.69 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.99 | 90.91% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.1% restricted 46.4% extraordinary 5.5% mil spec 6.0% classified 27.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt