--- title: "Candlelight case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Candlelight ($181.02) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 99.14% over 749 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Candlelight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Candlelight A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight?window=all) Price · $181.02 · 259 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $164.56 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.14% · 749 openings, odds method Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87 openings · below min 7 days · 105.87% ±17.89 620 openings 30 days · 99.14% ±16.29 749 openings since tracking started · 99.14% ±16.29 749 openings 61.5% 109.8% 158.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight?window=24h) | 87 | 109.68% ±47.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight?window=7d) | 620 | 105.87% ±17.9 | +1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight) | 749 | 99.14% ±16.3 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candlelight?window=all) | 749 | 99.14% ±16.3 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 750 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $7,336 10,480 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,542 9,345 coins | 4.0% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $5,684 8,120 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 7.6% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,197 5,995 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $1,100 1,572 coins | 9.4% | 5 | 10.5 | 0.48× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,065 1,521 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.07× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 286 | $799 1,142 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 143 | $709 1,013 coins | 3.0% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 105 | $563 804 coins | 3.2% | 5 | 7.1 | 0.70× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $391 558 coins | 4.7% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 59 | $363 519 coins | 3.8% | 10 | 12.8 | 0.78× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $282 403 coins | 2.1% | 3 | 9.4 | 0.32× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $264 377 coins | 1.8% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $218 311 coins | 3.0% | 18 | 17.3 | 1.04× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $206 294 coins | 3.6% | 20 | 21.8 | 0.92× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $197 281 coins | 8.4% | 77 | 52.5 | 1.47× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 25 | $186 265 coins | 4.5% | 23 | 30.0 | 0.77× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $174 249 coins | 3.2% | 21 | 22.5 | 0.93× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $111 158 coins | 3.7% | 42 | 41.3 | 1.02× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $108 154 coins | 5.2% | 51 | 60.0 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 29.0% | $63.80 91.14 coins | 11.2% | 240 | 217.5 | 1.10× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 27.7% | $46.07 65.82 coins | 7.8% | 197 | 207.8 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $181 259 coins $6,542 9,345 coins 36.14x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $181 259 coins $6,542 9,345 coins 36.14x 2026-11-10 02:01 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Valentin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Valentin) $181 259 coins $6,542 9,345 coins 36.14x 2026-11-08 19:49 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [DD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DD) $181 259 coins $5,684 8,120 coins 31.40x 2026-11-09 17:43 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $184 263 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 28.05x 2026-11-06 15:49 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $181 259 coins $5,023 7,175 coins 27.75x 2026-11-10 18:50 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $181 259 coins $5,023 7,175 coins 27.75x 2026-11-09 17:42 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $181 259 coins $5,023 7,175 coins 27.75x 2026-11-09 13:41 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $184 263 coins $1,131 1,616 coins 6.14x 2026-11-08 11:47 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) [✪ Greek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AA%20Greek) $184 263 coins $1,131 1,616 coins 6.14x 2026-11-05 21:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=candlelight) [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $181 259 coins $197 281 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 09:33 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $181 259 coins $108 154 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $181 259 coins $197 281 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $181 259 coins $46.07 65.82 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 06:33 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $181 259 coins $1,100 1,572 coins 6.08x 2026-11-11 06:20 UTC [AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) [☻Rebely](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%BBRebely) $181 259 coins $63.80 91.14 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 05:11 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $181 259 coins $46.07 65.82 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 04:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $181 259 coins $197 281 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 04:52 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $181 259 coins $46.07 65.82 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 01:17 UTC [AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) Hidden $181 259 coins $63.80 91.14 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 01:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $181 | 90.91% | 24 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $181 | 90.91% | 24 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $184 | 90.91% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.3% covert 60.0% extraordinary 2.7% classified 36.0% best hit $6,542 (36.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt