--- title: "Candy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Candy ($10.40) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 91.86% over 27.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Candy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Candy A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy?window=all) Price · $10.40 · 14.86 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $9.46 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.86% · 27.5K openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.77% ±5.86 3,050 openings 7 days · 91.76% ±2.05 23.8K openings 30 days · 91.86% ±1.90 27.5K openings since tracking started · 91.86% ±1.90 27.5K openings 84.5% 91.0% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy?window=24h) | 3,050 | 90.77% ±5.86 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy?window=7d) | 23.8K | 91.76% ±2.05 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy) | 27.5K | 91.86% ±1.90 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/candy?window=all) | 27.5K | 91.86% ±1.90 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $287 410 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.36× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $127 181 coins | 0.3% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $113 161 coins | 23.8% | 585 | 549.9 | 1.06× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $96.60 138 coins | 0.3% | 12 | 8.2 | 1.45× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $67.53 96.47 coins | 2.5% | 103 | 96.2 | 1.07× | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $54.19 77.42 coins | 1.1% | 51 | 55.0 | 0.93× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $40.98 58.55 coins | 2.2% | 126 | 137.5 | 0.92× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) | 12.4% | $21.15 30.21 coins | 27.7% | 3,380 | 3406.5 | 0.99× | | [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $13.26 18.95 coins | 3.5% | 661 | 687.3 | 0.96× | | [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $12.62 18.03 coins | 2.0% | 411 | 412.4 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) | 10.0% | $11.58 16.54 coins | 12.2% | 2,800 | 2749.4 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) | 1 in 100 | $11.21 16.01 coins | 1.2% | 301 | 274.9 | 1.09× | | [Sticker \| Miami Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-buttery-holo) | 1 in 125 | $7.36 10.52 coins | 0.6% | 216 | 220.0 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $7.06 10.08 coins | 2.0% | 738 | 742.3 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $6.26 8.95 coins | 3.0% | 1,211 | 1237.2 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-skill-surf-holo) | 1 in 25 | $4.93 7.04 coins | 2.1% | 1,073 | 1099.8 | 0.98× | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.31 6.15 coins | 1.4% | 845 | 824.8 | 1.02× | | [MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $3.87 5.53 coins | 5.7% | 3,743 | 3849.2 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.34 3.34 coins | 1.2% | 1,349 | 1374.7 | 0.98× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $2.20 3.14 coins | 0.8% | 1,002 | 962.3 | 1.04× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-well-worn) | 15.0% | $1.97 2.82 coins | 3.1% | 4,069 | 4124.1 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 17.0% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 2.8% | 4,812 | 4674.0 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=candy) [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.40 14.86 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.40 14.86 coins $4.31 6.15 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.40 14.86 coins $21.15 30.21 coins 2.03x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.40 14.86 coins $21.15 30.21 coins 2.03x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.40 14.86 coins $4.31 6.15 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $10.40 14.86 coins $11.58 16.54 coins 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-well-worn) [invisibility](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/invisibility) $10.40 14.86 coins $1.97 2.82 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.40 14.86 coins $3.87 5.53 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.40 14.86 coins $6.26 8.95 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.40 14.86 coins $113 161 coins 10.83x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.40 | 90.91% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.92 | 90.90% | 22 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $10.92 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.91 | 90.93% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.4% industrial 15.2% classified 24.6% restricted 42.0% mil spec 10.0% remarkable 5.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt