--- title: "Captcha case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Captcha ($22.89) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 14 items with odds, observed 93.03% over 691 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Captcha](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Captcha A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha?window=all) Price · $22.89 · 32.7 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $20.81 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.03% · 691 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95 openings · below min 7 days · 94.59% ±12.59 573 openings 30 days · 93.03% ±11.46 691 openings since tracking started · 93.03% ±11.46 691 openings 81.0% 117.8% 154.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha?window=24h) | 95 | 122.96% ±31.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha?window=7d) | 573 | 94.59% ±12.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha) | 691 | 93.03% ±11.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/captcha?window=all) | 691 | 93.03% ±11.5 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 695 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $436 623 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 1,429 | $329 470 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $158 226 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $112 160 coins | 3.0% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $102 145 coins | 12.2% | 20 | 17.4 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $101 144 coins | 21.8% | 39 | 31.3 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $99.40 142 coins | 16.7% | 26 | 24.3 | 1.07× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $97.30 139 coins | 4.7% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $44.31 63.3 coins | 19.2% | 51 | 62.6 | 0.82× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $27.90 39.86 coins | 9.4% | 48 | 48.7 | 0.99× | | [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-field-tested) | 15.0% | $8.59 12.27 coins | 6.2% | 99 | 104.3 | 0.95× | | [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) | 19.0% | $1.81 2.58 coins | 1.6% | 122 | 132.1 | 0.92× | | [P90 \| Module (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-factory-new) | 18.0% | $1.22 1.74 coins | 1.1% | 139 | 125.1 | 1.11× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 19.7% | $0.95 1.36 coins | 0.9% | 139 | 136.8 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=captcha) [XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $22.89 32.7 coins $8.59 12.27 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.89 32.7 coins $44.31 63.3 coins 1.94x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC [XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $22.89 32.7 coins $8.59 12.27 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC [XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-field-tested) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $22.89 32.7 coins $8.59 12.27 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC [XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $22.89 32.7 coins $8.59 12.27 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) Hidden $22.89 32.7 coins $97.30 139 coins 4.25x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) Hidden $22.89 32.7 coins $1.81 2.58 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 01:24 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $22.89 32.7 coins $1.81 2.58 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 01:24 UTC [P90 | Module (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-factory-new) Hidden $22.89 32.7 coins $1.22 1.74 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 01:24 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $22.89 32.7 coins $0.95 1.36 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 01:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $22.89 | 90.90% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.90 | 90.90% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.83 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.85 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.3% exotic 0.1% classified 27.7% industrial 34.0% mil spec 18.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt