--- title: "Cardboard case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cardboard ($71.36) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 104.25% over 227 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard rendered: 2026-11-11T21:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cardboard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cardboard A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard?window=all) Price · $71.36 · 102 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $64.87 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.25% · 227 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 106.16% ±22.59 197 openings 30 days · 104.25% ±21.07 227 openings since tracking started · 104.25% ±21.07 227 openings -0.5% 77.3% 155.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard?window=24h) | 16 | 75.38% ±78.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard?window=7d) | 197 | 106.16% ±22.6 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard) | 227 | 104.25% ±21.1 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cardboard?window=all) | 227 | 104.25% ±21.1 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 227 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 286 | $1,086 1,552 coins | 5.9% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $972 1,388 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $846 1,209 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $649 927 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $593 847 coins | 9.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $506 723 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $244 349 coins | 7.5% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.88× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 154 | $228 326 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $180 257 coins | 11.1% | 12 | 9.1 | 1.32× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $94.50 135 coins | 13.1% | 19 | 20.4 | 0.93× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $84.70 121 coins | 7.8% | 8 | 13.6 | 0.59× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 14.0% | $45.13 64.47 coins | 9.7% | 31 | 31.8 | 0.98× | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 18.0% | $26.08 37.25 coins | 7.2% | 45 | 40.9 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 21.0% | $24.53 35.05 coins | 7.9% | 49 | 47.7 | 1.03× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 23.1% | $21.95 31.35 coins | 7.8% | 49 | 52.3 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $71.39 102 coins $1,120 1,600 coins 15.69x 2026-11-05 12:12 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $1,086 1,552 coins 15.22x 2026-11-08 23:49 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $846 1,209 coins 11.86x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $71.39 102 coins $649 927 coins 9.09x 2026-11-08 10:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $71.39 102 coins $649 927 coins 9.09x 2026-11-05 12:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $593 847 coins 8.31x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $593 847 coins 8.31x 2026-11-10 00:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $593 847 coins 8.31x 2026-11-08 23:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.39 102 coins $593 847 coins 8.31x 2026-11-08 10:38 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-factory-new) [d3ad](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/d3ad) $71.39 102 coins $506 723 coins 7.09x 2026-11-05 12:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cardboard) [★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $180 257 coins 2.52x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $24.53 35.05 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $21.95 31.35 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) [Bloodgames](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bloodgames) $71.36 102 coins $180 257 coins 2.52x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $24.53 35.05 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $24.53 35.05 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $21.95 31.35 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $71.36 102 coins $94.50 135 coins 1.32x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $26.08 37.25 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $71.36 102 coins $21.95 31.35 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $71.36 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $70.94 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.39 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 23.5% extraordinary 0.4% classified 14.0% restricted 18.0% mil spec 44.0% best hit $1,120 (15.69x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt