--- title: "Carnival case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Carnival ($171.34) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 102.84% over 119 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Carnival](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Carnival A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival?window=all) Price · $171.34 · 245 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $155.76 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.84% · 119 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 109.03% ±40.60 100 openings 30 days · 102.84% ±37.21 119 openings since tracking started · 102.84% ±37.21 119 openings -0.5% 170.8% 342.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival?window=24h) | 4 | 139.15% ±202.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival?window=7d) | 100 | 109.03% ±40.6 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival) | 119 | 102.84% ±37.2 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carnival?window=all) | 119 | 102.84% ±37.2 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 313 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 6.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 119 | $2,051 2,930 coins | 11.1% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $1,384 1,977 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 59 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 13.0% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.48× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 40 | $679 970 coins | 10.9% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · legendary · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 42 | $596 852 coins | 9.2% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 31 | $327 467 coins | 6.8% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.30× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $261 373 coins | 7.5% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 20 | $209 299 coins | 6.7% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $165 235 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 7.1 | 0.42× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $84.00 120 coins | 3.5% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $67.04 95.77 coins | 2.6% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.65× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $47.43 67.75 coins | 2.1% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $21.68 30.97 coins | 0.9% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $12.28 17.54 coins | 0.6% | 8 | 8.3 | 0.96× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $9.84 14.06 coins | 0.4% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.32× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $6.40 9.14 coins | 0.3% | 6 | 9.5 | 0.63× | | [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.33 6.18 coins | 0.2% | 8 | 8.3 | 0.96× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.75 5.36 coins | 0.2% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $1.62 2.32 coins | 0.1% | 12 | 10.4 | 1.16× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $172 246 coins $3,332 4,760 coins 19.34x 2026-11-04 19:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) [glock](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/glock) $172 246 coins $2,051 2,930 coins 11.90x 2026-11-06 19:11 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $172 246 coins $2,051 2,930 coins 11.90x 2026-11-06 01:24 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $172 246 coins $1,248 1,783 coins 7.24x 2026-11-08 02:32 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $172 246 coins $1,248 1,783 coins 7.24x 2026-11-07 17:52 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $172 246 coins $1,248 1,783 coins 7.24x 2026-11-02 23:35 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $171 245 coins $679 970 coins 3.96x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $172 246 coins $664 949 coins 3.86x 2026-11-07 17:50 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [gurkan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gurkan) $172 246 coins $664 949 coins 3.86x 2026-11-04 23:00 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · legendary · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $172 246 coins $599 855 coins 3.47x 2026-11-08 02:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=carnival) [SSG 08 | Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) Hidden $171 245 coins $3.75 5.36 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $171 245 coins $679 970 coins 3.96x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $171 245 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $171 245 coins $261 373 coins 1.52x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) Hidden $172 246 coins $4.31 6.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 02:33 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-battle-scarred) [IStoorm CSGORoll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/IStoorm%20CSGORoll.com) $172 246 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 02:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $172 246 coins $262 374 coins 1.52x 2026-11-08 02:33 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · legendary · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $172 246 coins $599 855 coins 3.47x 2026-11-08 02:33 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) Hidden $172 246 coins $84.70 121 coins 0.49x 2026-11-08 02:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) Hidden $172 246 coins $209 299 coins 1.21x 2026-11-08 02:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $171 | 90.91% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $171 | 90.91% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $172 | 90.91% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.0% legendary 3.2% classified 33.9% industrial 6.8% restricted 15.7% Mythical 7.0% mil spec 8.4% best hit $3,332 (19.34x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt