---
title: "Carved case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Carved ($129.42) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 85.82% over 90 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Carved](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Carved

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved?window=all)

Price · $129.42 · 185 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $117.65 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.82% · 90 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 42.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 40 openings · below min

30 days · 90 openings · below min

since tracking started · 90 openings · below min

41.0% 88.5% 136.0%

**Small sample.** 90 openings and 38.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved?window=7d) | 40 | 88.54% ±46.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved) | 90 | 85.82% ±31.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carved?window=all) | 90 | 85.82% ±31.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $5,156 7,365 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,281 6,115 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 455 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 800 | $1,065 1,521 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 357 | $783 1,119 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333 | $679 970 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $419 599 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $331 473 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $281 401 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $206 294 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $164 234 coins | 3.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) | 11.0% | $159 227 coins | 14.9% | 15 | 9.9 | 1.52× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $155 221 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $122 174 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $114 163 coins | 21.3% | 23 | 19.8 | 1.16× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $96.60 138 coins | 5.3% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.52× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 28 | $85.40 122 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $84.00 120 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 18.0% | $80.50 115 coins | 12.3% | 20 | 16.2 | 1.23× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $71.40 102 coins | 2.7% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 22.0% | $58.58 83.69 coins | 11.0% | 17 | 19.8 | 0.86× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) Hidden $129 185 coins $813 1,162 coins 6.28x 2026-11-04 19:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=carved)

[FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) Hidden $129 185 coins $80.50 115 coins 0.62x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) Hidden $129 185 coins $114 163 coins 0.88x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [✪Tiketas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AATiketas) $129 185 coins $71.40 102 coins 0.55x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) Hidden $129 185 coins $59.26 84.66 coins 0.46x 2026-11-08 01:27 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) Hidden $129 185 coins $159 227 coins 1.23x 2026-11-08 01:27 UTC

[FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) Hidden $129 185 coins $80.50 115 coins 0.62x 2026-11-08 01:27 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) [Luxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Luxi) $129 185 coins $59.26 84.66 coins 0.46x 2026-11-08 01:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) [Edu-Bruh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Edu-Bruh) $129 185 coins $111 158 coins 0.85x 2026-11-05 15:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) Hidden $129 185 coins $59.26 84.66 coins 0.46x 2026-11-05 15:34 UTC

[FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) Hidden $129 185 coins $80.50 115 coins 0.62x 2026-11-05 15:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $129 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $130 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $129 | 90.91% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.1% covert 68.9% restricted 11.2% extraordinary 1.8% consumer 18.0% best hit $813 (6.28x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt