--- title: "Carvery case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Carvery ($22.23) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.20% over 3,607 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Carvery](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Carvery A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery?window=all) Price · $22.23 · 31.76 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $20.21 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.20% · 3,607 openings, odds method Variance · 8.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 105.49% ±27.01 449 openings 7 days · 89.24% ±10.17 3,149 openings 30 days · 87.20% ±9.51 3,607 openings since tracking started · 87.20% ±9.51 3,607 openings 77.0% 105.0% 133.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery?window=24h) | 449 | 105.49% ±27.0 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery?window=7d) | 3,149 | 89.24% ±10.2 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery) | 3,607 | 87.20% ±9.51 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/carvery?window=all) | 3,607 | 87.20% ±9.51 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,607 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $302 432 coins | 15.0% | 30 | 36.1 | 0.83× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $301 430 coins | 14.9% | 34 | 36.1 | 0.94× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $295 421 coins | 14.6% | 38 | 36.1 | 1.05× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $241 344 coins | 11.9% | 28 | 36.1 | 0.78× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife) | 1 in 100 | $198 283 coins | 9.8% | 45 | 36.1 | 1.25× | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $175 250 coins | 8.7% | 29 | 36.1 | 0.80× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $144 206 coins | 7.1% | 41 | 36.1 | 1.14× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $137 196 coins | 6.8% | 28 | 36.1 | 0.78× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $119 170 coins | 5.9% | 43 | 36.1 | 1.19× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $108 154 coins | 5.3% | 36 | 36.1 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,635 | 1623.2 | 1.01× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,620 | 1623.2 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=carvery) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.23 31.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $22.23 31.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $22.23 31.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Relaxa \*](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Relaxa%20*-7036790) $22.23 31.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.23 31.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.23 31.76 coins $119 170 coins 5.35x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $22.23 31.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $22.23 31.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.23 31.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.23 31.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.23 | 90.90% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.41 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% consumer 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt