---
title: "Cast Away case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cast Away ($25.41) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 23 items with odds, observed 94.21% over 2,610 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away
rendered: 2026-11-12T17:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cast Away](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cast Away

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away?window=all)

Price · $25.41 · 36.3 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $23.10 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.21% · 2,610 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.09% ±29.04 133 openings

7 days · 91.22% ±7.68 1,908 openings

30 days · 94.21% ±6.57 2,610 openings

since tracking started · 94.21% ±6.57 2,610 openings

51.5% 81.3% 111.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away?window=24h) | 133 | 81.09% ±29.0 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away?window=7d) | 1,908 | 91.22% ±7.68 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away) | 2,610 | 94.21% ±6.57 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cast-away?window=all) | 2,610 | 94.21% ±6.57 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,610 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $878 1,254 coins | 1.9% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.30× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $337 482 coins | 1.5% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $327 467 coins | 2.1% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $221 316 coins | 19.2% | 49 | 52.2 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $169 242 coins | 2.9% | 7 | 10.4 | 0.67× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 556 | $160 228 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $118 169 coins | 1.0% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $91.70 131 coins | 7.9% | 61 | 52.2 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $76.30 109 coins | 9.9% | 93 | 78.3 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $61.13 87.33 coins | 1.5% | 21 | 14.4 | 1.46× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $59.74 85.34 coins | 2.1% | 24 | 20.9 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $45.13 64.47 coins | 1.2% | 9 | 15.7 | 0.57× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $42.21 60.3 coins | 1.8% | 25 | 26.1 | 0.96× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $30.46 43.51 coins | 7.9% | 155 | 156.6 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 77 | $27.60 39.43 coins | 1.6% | 42 | 33.9 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $18.43 26.33 coins | 3.6% | 106 | 117.4 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $17.39 24.84 coins | 3.0% | 90 | 104.4 | 0.86× |
| [Patch \| Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) | 1 in 40 | $16.29 23.27 coins | 1.8% | 62 | 65.3 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.06 22.95 coins | 3.5% | 128 | 130.5 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $12.66 18.08 coins | 4.4% | 234 | 208.8 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 17.7% | $12.52 17.89 coins | 9.6% | 488 | 461.2 | 1.06× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 20.0% | $8.76 12.52 coins | 7.6% | 517 | 522.0 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-well-worn) | 20.0% | $3.38 4.83 coins | 2.9% | 481 | 522.0 | 0.92× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 12 Nov, 14:40 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) [Jbeuhlélé](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jbeuhl%C3%A9l%C3%A9) $25.41 36.3 coins $878 1,254 coins 34.55x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.56 36.52 coins $860 1,229 coins 33.65x 2026-11-04 19:13 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.56 36.52 coins $860 1,229 coins 33.65x 2026-11-03 22:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cast-away)

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [Matt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Matt) $25.41 36.3 coins $12.52 17.89 coins 0.49x 2026-11-12 17:05 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) Hidden $25.41 36.3 coins $12.52 17.89 coins 0.49x 2026-11-12 17:03 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $25.41 36.3 coins $91.70 131 coins 3.61x 2026-11-12 17:03 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.41 36.3 coins $12.66 18.08 coins 0.50x 2026-11-12 17:00 UTC

[M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) Hidden $25.41 36.3 coins $76.30 109 coins 3.00x 2026-11-12 16:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $25.41 36.3 coins $18.43 26.33 coins 0.73x 2026-11-12 16:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Tatter (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-well-worn) Hidden $25.41 36.3 coins $3.38 4.83 coins 0.13x 2026-11-12 16:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.41 36.3 coins $18.43 26.33 coins 0.73x 2026-11-12 16:28 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) Hidden $25.41 36.3 coins $12.52 17.89 coins 0.49x 2026-11-12 16:28 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) Hidden $25.41 36.3 coins $12.52 17.89 coins 0.49x 2026-11-12 16:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.41 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.41 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $25.55 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $25.56 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.61 | 90.91% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.5% restricted 28.6% classified 52.9% extraordinary 0.2% mil spec 2.0% industrial 1.0% exotic 1.3% remarkable 2.5% consumer 5.0% best hit $878 (34.55x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt