--- title: "Catch case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Catch ($16.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 84.34% over 13.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch rendered: 2026-11-11T12:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Catch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Catch A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch?window=all) Price · $16.28 · 23.26 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $14.80 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.34% · 13.6K openings, odds method Variance · 15.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 36 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 71.55% ±17.61 1,852 openings 7 days · 82.00% ±7.05 11.6K openings 30 days · 84.34% ±6.49 13.6K openings since tracking started · 84.34% ±6.49 13.6K openings 53.5% 72.5% 91.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.84% – 90.83%, 13,646 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch?window=24h) | 1,852 | 71.55% ±17.6 | −2.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch?window=7d) | 11.6K | 82.00% ±7.05 | −2.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch) | 13.6K | 84.34% ±6.49 | −2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/catch?window=all) | 13.6K | 84.34% ±6.49 | −2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $931 1,330 coins | 12.6% | 23 | 27.3 | 0.84× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 500 | $436 623 coins | 5.9% | 24 | 27.3 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $395 564 coins | 5.3% | 26 | 27.3 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $279 398 coins | 3.8% | 27 | 27.3 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $210 300 coins | 14.2% | 129 | 136.5 | 0.94× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $197 281 coins | 13.3% | 124 | 136.5 | 0.91× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $193 276 coins | 2.6% | 27 | 27.3 | 0.99× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $169 242 coins | 11.4% | 109 | 136.5 | 0.80× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $124 177 coins | 8.4% | 133 | 136.5 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| v4lde (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v4lde-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 100 | $100 143 coins | 6.8% | 131 | 136.5 | 0.96× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $98.70 141 coins | 6.7% | 135 | 136.5 | 0.99× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $58.98 84.26 coins | 4.0% | 152 | 136.5 | 1.11× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $39.78 56.83 coins | 2.7% | 132 | 136.5 | 0.97× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $35.01 50.02 coins | 2.4% | 152 | 136.5 | 1.11× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 6,166 | 6143.4 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 6,162 | 6143.4 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-07 20:06 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-07 18:38 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-07 16:15 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-07 14:20 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-07 13:25 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-06 21:30 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-06 10:51 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-06 09:43 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) [Brumla](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Brumla) $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-05 14:39 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 23.46 coins $944 1,349 coins 57.50x 2026-11-05 12:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=catch) [★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $16.28 23.26 coins $197 281 coins 12.08x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $16.28 23.26 coins $169 242 coins 10.40x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $16.28 23.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $16.28 23.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $16.28 23.26 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $16.28 23.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $16.28 23.26 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.28 23.26 coins $98.70 141 coins 6.06x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $16.28 23.26 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $16.28 23.26 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.28 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.34 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.42 | 90.90% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 3.2% covert 4.4% classified 1.2% legendary 0.2% restricted 1.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $944 (57.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt