---
title: "Caveman case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Caveman ($8.35) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 22 items with odds, observed 90.23% over 14.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Caveman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Caveman

A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman?window=all)

Price · $8.35 · 11.93 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $7.59 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.23% · 14.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.13% ±12.59 1,661 openings

7 days · 89.71% ±4.70 12.1K openings

30 days · 90.23% ±4.30 14.4K openings

since tracking started · 90.23% ±4.30 14.4K openings

83.0% 96.2% 109.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman?window=24h) | 1,661 | 96.13% ±12.6 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman?window=7d) | 12.1K | 89.71% ±4.70 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman) | 14.4K | 90.23% ±4.30 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/caveman?window=all) | 14.4K | 90.23% ±4.30 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $489 699 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $168 240 coins | 1.5% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $141 201 coins | 1.9% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $129 184 coins | 3.4% | 38 | 28.9 | 1.32× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $108 154 coins | 4.3% | 54 | 43.3 | 1.25× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $96.60 138 coins | 3.2% | 40 | 36.1 | 1.11× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $93.10 133 coins | 3.1% | 31 | 36.1 | 0.86× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $88.91 127 coins | 5.9% | 75 | 72.2 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $85.40 122 coins | 4.5% | 60 | 57.7 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $73.50 105 coins | 9.7% | 151 | 144.4 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $63.09 90.13 coins | 3.3% | 52 | 57.7 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $60.16 85.94 coins | 7.9% | 134 | 144.4 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $57.36 81.95 coins | 11.3% | 215 | 216.5 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $38.40 54.86 coins | 10.1% | 280 | 288.7 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $32.58 46.55 coins | 12.9% | 438 | 433.1 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $25.33 36.19 coins | 13.3% | 550 | 577.4 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| In The Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-in-the-fire-foil) | 10.0% | $0.46 0.66 coins | 0.6% | 1,439 | 1443.6 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Purple Gnar sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-gnar) | 10.0% | $0.29 0.41 coins | 0.4% | 1,533 | 1443.6 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) | 15.0% | $0.17 0.25 coins | 0.3% | 2,164 | 2165.4 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) | 15.0% | $0.15 0.21 coins | 0.3% | 2,166 | 2165.4 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) | 15.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 0.1% | 2,169 | 2165.4 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 2,825 | 2887.2 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.35 11.93 coins $489 699 coins 58.59x 2026-11-10 19:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=caveman)

[Sticker | In The Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-in-the-fire-foil) [Disznóbőr Dénes](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Diszn%C3%B3b%C5%91r%20D%C3%A9nes) $8.35 11.93 coins $0.46 0.66 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-caiman-field-tested) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $8.35 11.93 coins $38.40 54.86 coins 4.60x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC

[Sticker | This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) Hidden $8.35 11.93 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Gnar sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-gnar) [malakasohn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/malakasohn) $8.35 11.93 coins $0.29 0.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Gnar sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-gnar) Hidden $8.35 11.93 coins $0.29 0.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Sticker | This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) Hidden $8.35 11.93 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Sticker | This Is Fine (H) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-h) Hidden $8.35 11.93 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Gnar sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-gnar) Hidden $8.35 11.93 coins $0.29 0.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Gnar sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-gnar) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $8.35 11.93 coins $0.29 0.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Gnar sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-gnar) Hidden $8.35 11.93 coins $0.29 0.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $8.35 | 90.89% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $8.35 | 90.93% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $8.35 | 90.94% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.35 | 90.90% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.44 | 90.94% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.55 | 90.89% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.9% extraordinary 0.1% epic 0.3% classified 5.2% mil spec 1.5% restricted 7.0% exotic 10.0% high 60.0% Rare 15.0% best hit $489 (58.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt