---
title: "Cerberus case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cerberus ($70.71) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 71.85% over 622 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cerberus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cerberus

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus?window=all)

Price · $70.71 · 101 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $64.28 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.85% · 622 openings, odds method

Variance · 14.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 40 openings · below min

7 days · 66.75% ±33.23 506 openings

30 days · 71.85% ±29.99 622 openings

since tracking started · 71.85% ±29.99 622 openings

25.0% 142.5% 260.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus?window=24h) | 40 | 142.50% ±116.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus?window=7d) | 506 | 66.75% ±33.2 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus) | 622 | 71.85% ±30.0 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerberus?window=all) | 622 | 71.85% ±30.0 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 622 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $14.4K 20,545 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 4,000 | $6,780 9,685 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,548 7,925 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $984 1,406 coins | 30.6% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.72× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $502 717 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $395 564 coins | 12.3% | 14 | 12.4 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 241 | $277 396 coins | 1.8% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.55× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $269 384 coins | 8.4% | 11 | 12.4 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $126 180 coins | 5.9% | 16 | 18.7 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $121 173 coins | 9.4% | 37 | 31.1 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $99.40 142 coins | 7.7% | 24 | 31.1 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $51.72 73.88 coins | 4.0% | 28 | 31.1 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $40.13 57.33 coins | 3.1% | 24 | 31.1 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) | 10.0% | $20.69 29.56 coins | 3.2% | 62 | 62.2 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 20.0% | $1.26 1.8 coins | 0.4% | 143 | 124.4 | 1.15× |
| [Sticker \| Baby Cerberus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-cerberus) | 40.0% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 0.1% | 249 | 248.8 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $71.24 102 coins $988 1,411 coins 13.86x 2026-11-07 01:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $71.24 102 coins $988 1,411 coins 13.86x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $71.24 102 coins $988 1,411 coins 13.86x 2026-11-04 10:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $71.24 102 coins $988 1,411 coins 13.86x 2026-11-04 06:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $71.24 102 coins $988 1,411 coins 13.86x 2026-11-04 02:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $70.71 101 coins $984 1,406 coins 13.92x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Kermgg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kermgg) $70.71 101 coins $984 1,406 coins 13.92x 2026-11-11 00:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $984 1,406 coins 13.92x 2026-11-10 03:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Musse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Musse) $70.71 101 coins $984 1,406 coins 13.92x 2026-11-09 07:23 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-factory-new) Hidden $71.24 102 coins $503 719 coins 7.06x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cerberus)

[Sticker | Baby Cerberus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-cerberus) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $70.71 101 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $20.69 29.56 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

[Charm | Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $1.26 1.8 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:52 UTC

[Sticker | Baby Cerberus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-cerberus) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:52 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $70.71 101 coins $20.69 29.56 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 01:52 UTC

[Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $70.71 101 coins $269 384 coins 3.80x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $121 173 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $121 173 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC

[Charm | Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $70.71 101 coins $1.26 1.8 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $70.71 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $70.95 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.24 | 90.91% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% remarkable 0.0% covert 9.0% legendary 0.9% restricted 2.0% rare 8.0% classified 10.0% mil spec 10.0% #d32ce6 20.0% Rare 40.0% best hit $988 (13.86x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt