--- title: "Cerulean case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cerulean ($64.48) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 90.74% over 84 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean rendered: 2026-11-11T15:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cerulean](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cerulean A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean?window=all) Price · $64.48 · 92.12 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $58.62 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.74% · 84 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 80 openings · below min 30 days · 84 openings · below min since tracking started · 84 openings · below min -0.5% 77.8% 156.0% **Small sample.** 84 openings and 13.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean?window=24h) | 3 | 2.15% ±153.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean?window=7d) | 80 | 93.22% ±29.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean) | 84 | 90.74% ±29.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cerulean?window=all) | 84 | 90.74% ±29.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 200 | $658 940 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $479 684 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $302 432 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 10.0% | $211 301 coins | 35.9% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $162 231 coins | 13.8% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $101 144 coins | 17.2% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $94.50 135 coins | 4.8% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $48.50 69.28 coins | 4.1% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.43× | | [P90 \| Baroque Red (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $31.09 44.42 coins | 3.7% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.19× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $24.88 35.55 coins | 4.2% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 10.0% | $15.49 22.13 coins | 2.6% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.91 5.58 coins | 0.7% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) | 13.5% | $1.79 2.56 coins | 0.4% | 15 | 11.3 | 1.32× | | [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.57 0.81 coins | 0.1% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cerulean) [CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $64.48 92.12 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:52 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) Hidden $64.48 92.12 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:52 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) Hidden $64.48 92.12 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:52 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) Hidden $64.48 92.12 coins $3.91 5.58 coins 0.06x 2026-11-09 01:56 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) [hermano](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hermano) $64.48 92.12 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 01:56 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) Hidden $64.48 92.12 coins $15.49 22.13 coins 0.24x 2026-11-09 01:56 UTC [P90 | Baroque Red (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-factory-new) Hidden $64.48 92.12 coins $31.09 44.42 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 01:56 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) Hidden $64.48 92.12 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 01:54 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $64.48 92.12 coins $162 231 coins 2.51x 2026-11-09 01:54 UTC [P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) Hidden $64.48 92.12 coins $101 144 coins 1.56x 2026-11-09 01:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $64.48 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $64.48 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $64.39 | 90.91% | 14 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $63.54 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $63.36 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.5% covert 29.0% classified 15.0% mil spec 55.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt