--- title: "Chained case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Chained ($0.62) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 9 items with odds, observed 89.97% over 76.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Chained](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Chained A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained?window=all) Price · $0.62 · 0.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $0.56 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.97% · 76.6K openings, odds method Variance · 13.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.08% ±8.48 7,199 openings 7 days · 89.83% ±2.78 66.6K openings 30 days · 89.97% ±2.60 76.6K openings since tracking started · 89.97% ±2.60 76.6K openings 82.0% 91.0% 100.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained?window=24h) | 7,199 | 91.08% ±8.48 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained?window=7d) | 66.6K | 89.83% ±2.78 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained) | 76.6K | 89.97% ±2.60 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chained?window=all) | 76.6K | 89.97% ±2.60 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $189 270 coins | 3.4% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [Tec-9 \| Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $8.09 11.55 coins | 18.0% | 935 | 959.8 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $7.70 11 coins | 3.4% | 201 | 192.0 | 1.05× | | [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $2.88 4.11 coins | 46.2% | 6,853 | 6910.6 | 0.99× | | [P90 \| Module (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.22 1.74 coins | 19.6% | 6,986 | 6910.6 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-field-tested) | 10.5% | $0.41 0.58 coins | 7.6% | 8,070 | 8054.7 | 1.00× | | [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 15,461 | 15357.0 | 1.01× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 15,304 | 15357.0 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.7% | 22,969 | 23035.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $0.63 0.9 coins $193 275 coins 305.6x 2026-11-08 07:37 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $0.63 0.9 coins $193 275 coins 305.6x 2026-11-06 20:36 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) [csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/csgoroll.com) $0.63 0.9 coins $193 275 coins 305.6x 2026-11-06 16:01 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) [Morty](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Morty) $0.63 0.9 coins $193 275 coins 305.6x 2026-11-03 21:39 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $189 270 coins 306.8x 2026-11-10 17:27 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $189 270 coins 306.8x 2026-11-09 22:59 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) [RoL3x ♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/RoL3x%20%E2%99%A5) $0.62 0.88 coins $189 270 coins 306.8x 2026-11-09 09:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=chained) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [Kripka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kripka) $0.62 0.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.88 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.62 | 90.93% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.62 | 91.29% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.63 | 91.07% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.63 | 91.13% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% mil spec 30.0% consumer 70.0% best hit $193 (305.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt