---
title: "Champion Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Champion Case ($23.77) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 15 items with odds, observed 87.59% over 3,934 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Champion Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Champion Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case?window=all)

Price · $23.77 · 33.96 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $21.61 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.59% · 3,934 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.28% ±16.06 332 openings

7 days · 87.24% ±5.07 3,331 openings

30 days · 87.59% ±4.67 3,934 openings

since tracking started · 87.59% ±4.67 3,934 openings

80.5% 97.2% 114.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case?window=24h) | 332 | 97.28% ±16.1 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case?window=7d) | 3,331 | 87.24% ±5.07 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case) | 3,934 | 87.59% ±4.67 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/champion-case?window=all) | 3,934 | 87.59% ±4.67 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,944 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $783 1,119 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $337 482 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $327 467 coins | 0.8% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $255 365 coins | 5.9% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $207 296 coins | 4.8% | 13 | 19.7 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $79.80 114 coins | 14.8% | 136 | 157.8 | 0.86× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $79.80 114 coins | 29.5% | 343 | 315.5 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $58.58 83.69 coins | 2.7% | 32 | 39.4 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $55.94 79.92 coins | 6.2% | 83 | 94.3 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 12.0% | $29.03 41.47 coins | 16.1% | 483 | 473.3 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.25 27.5 coins | 4.5% | 183 | 197.2 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $11.90 17 coins | 4.4% | 316 | 315.5 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 20.0% | $5.73 8.18 coins | 5.3% | 789 | 788.8 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 18.5% | $3.51 5.01 coins | 3.0% | 714 | 729.6 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.97 1.39 coins | 0.9% | 832 | 788.8 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=champion-case)

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) Hidden $23.77 33.96 coins $11.90 17 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.77 33.96 coins $55.94 79.92 coins 2.35x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) Hidden $23.77 33.96 coins $11.90 17 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) Hidden $23.77 33.96 coins $0.97 1.39 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) Hidden $23.77 33.96 coins $5.73 8.18 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) Hidden $23.77 33.96 coins $0.97 1.39 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) Hidden $23.77 33.96 coins $5.73 8.18 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) Hidden $23.77 33.96 coins $0.97 1.39 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $23.77 33.96 coins $3.51 5.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $23.77 33.96 coins $19.25 27.5 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $23.77 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $23.77 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $24.03 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $23.97 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $23.97 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.97 | 90.92% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 28.0% restricted 39.0% classified 33.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt