--- title: "Chanced case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Chanced ($81.43) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 76.61% over 91 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Chanced](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Chanced A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced?window=all) Price · $81.43 · 116 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $74.03 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.61% · 91 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 83 openings · below min 30 days · 91 openings · below min since tracking started · 91 openings · below min 36.0% 76.8% 117.5% **Small sample.** 91 openings and 22.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced?window=7d) | 83 | 76.75% ±39.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced) | 91 | 76.61% ±38.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chanced?window=all) | 91 | 76.61% ±38.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $27.5K 39,250 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $22.8K 32,500 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 14,286 | $8,057 11,510 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 250,000 | $6,808 9,725 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 16,667 | $6,003 8,575 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $2,842 4,060 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,520 2,172 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,446 2,065 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife) | 1 in 4,000 | $992 1,417 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,222 | $627 895 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $289 413 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 556 | $264 377 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $223 319 coins | 33.2% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $151 215 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $107 153 coins | 5.5% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $95.20 136 coins | 10.9% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $68.73 98.18 coins | 4.6% | 8 | 4.5 | 1.76× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 12.5% | $65.53 93.61 coins | 11.1% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $65.07 92.95 coins | 6.2% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $26.99 38.56 coins | 9.1% | 20 | 22.8 | 0.88× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $21.55 30.78 coins | 7.3% | 29 | 22.8 | 1.27× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=chanced) [M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.43 116 coins $21.55 30.78 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 01:40 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.43 116 coins $68.73 98.18 coins 0.84x 2026-11-10 01:40 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) [Gohan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gohan) $81.43 116 coins $223 319 coins 2.74x 2026-11-10 01:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.43 116 coins $21.55 30.78 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 01:39 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.43 116 coins $223 319 coins 2.74x 2026-11-10 01:39 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Gohan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gohan) $81.43 116 coins $65.07 92.95 coins 0.80x 2026-11-10 01:39 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.43 116 coins $223 319 coins 2.74x 2026-11-10 01:39 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.43 116 coins $223 319 coins 2.74x 2026-11-10 01:39 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [Gohan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gohan) $81.43 116 coins $95.20 136 coins 1.17x 2026-11-10 01:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) [🌌Satoru Gojo🌌](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%8C%8CSatoru%20Gojo%F0%9F%8C%8C) $81.87 117 coins $19.51 27.87 coins 0.24x 2026-11-07 00:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $81.43 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $81.56 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $81.87 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 37.3% classified 26.5% extraordinary 11.2% restricted 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt